Five nations Jockey for military influence in Arctic.

• Author: Keupp, Marcus M.
• Position: VIEWPOINT - Excerpt

This is an excerpt from the book, "The Northern Sea Route,"published by SpringerG'abler. Academic references are omitted here for the sake of brevity but are included in the original text.

Reports of ice quickly melting in the Arctic, Russia boosting its military expenditures and research predicting significant untapped hydrocarbon resources in the region has led many commentators to state that armed conflict and "resource wars" in the Arctic are imminent.

At the same time, many scholars and experts predict that the Northern Sea will soon become a viable alternative to the Suez Canal as a shipping route because it will significantly reduce distances between Asia and Europe.

Few would doubt that Russia--with its northern fleet, naval infantry, air force, coast guard and patrol vessels that support it--is by far the most forceful naval power in the Arctic. Besides its headquarters at Severomorsk, the fleet has four other large naval bases in the high north, each of which consists of multiple bays, facilities, ports and installations: Gadzhievo, Zapadnaya Litsa, Vidyayevo and Gremikha. Current media coverage suggests that a much smaller naval base may be under construction on Wrangel Island.

Norway also has a number of larger naval bases in its northern regions at Haakonsvern, Ramsund and Sortland. By comparison, Canada, the United States and Denmark combined have few naval bases in the Arctic. Among these so-called "Arctic Five," Russia has by far the strongest icebreaking capability, both by the number and the power of its icebreakers, allowing its combat vessels to operate in ice-infested waters with a thickness of up to two meters if they travel in an icebreaker canal.

Given that even military vessels can suffer ice-related damage if they have thin hulls, this factor is not to be underestimated. Also, Russia's nuclear icebreakers only have to be refueled once every four years. Their radius of operation is almost unlimited.

While the U.S. military today has few surface vessels capable of sailing in the Arctic, it has significant undersea capabilities and is able to operate nuclear submarines in the Arctic Ocean and in near-Arctic seas, in open water as well as under the Arctic ice cover. As of 2014, the United States is the only nation able to match the Russian submarine fleet. Both nations operate nuclear and conventional submarines in polar waters today and have done so throughout the Cold War.

The case is more nuanced when air and...