Fidel's finale? When Cuba's dictator was sidelined by illness, Castro's younger brother assumed power. What, if anything, will happen?

• Author: Thompson, Ginger
• Position: INTERNATIONAL

Fidel Castro's determination to keep control of Cuba's government is legendary. Two years ago, he refused general anesthesia for surgery to repair a broken knee. Anesthetized from the waist down, Castro remained awake for the three-hour operation. His chief of staff stayed at his side, Castro later said, so they "could attend to numerous important issues." So when it was announced in July that an ailing Castro would temporarily relinquish power to his brother Raul, Cubans--and the world--paid close attention.

The official story was that Castro, Cuba's leader for 47 years, was having intestinal surgery. But the secrecy surrounding his illness led many to think that Castro was dead. Cuban-Americans celebrated in Miami, and Washington feared mass migrations--Cubans trying to flee to the U.S., and Cuban-Americans trying to return home. Cuba watchers wondered if there would be a revolution or a military coup, and Raul Castro mobilized Cuba's armed forces, in case, he said, of an invasion by the U.S.

But Cuba--an island nation of 11 million people, just 90 miles from Florida--has so far remained calm. Instead of intervening, the Bush administration has called on Cubans to take their future into their own hands. There has been no upheaval within the Cuban government; it appears that the political system may not change much, at least for now.

Raul Castro says that his brother, who turned 80 in August, is recuperating. If Fidel dies, however, Cuba's stability may be at higher risk.

SOVIET ALLY

Fidel Castro came to power in 1959, when he and a band of guerrillas overthrew Cuba's previous dictator, Fulgencio Batista. In 1961, Castro allied Cuba with the Soviet Union, and the U.S. imposed a full trade embargo against Cuba, which is still in effect. That same year, Cuban exiles backed by the U.S. landed at the Bay of Pigs in a doomed attempt to overthrow Castro. In 1962, the Cuban Missile Crisis--during which Soviet missiles were deployed in Cuba--brought the U.S. and the Soviet Union to the brink of nuclear war.

Soviet aid kept Cuba's economy afloat until the early 1990s, when the Soviet Union collapsed and Cuba went into an economic free fall. While Castro has been credited for some progress in areas like education and health care, in recent years he has intensified the government's repressive policies, and human rights are routinely violated.

News that Castro was even temporarily out of commission triggered mixed emotions in Cuban-American...