Fergus County outlook: recovering from recession.

• Author: Polzin, Paul E.
• Position: Statistical data

The Great Recession hit the Lewistown economy, with the greatest impacts in construction and manufacturing. But beginning in 2011 and continuing to 2013, the local economy began a strong rebound, ending with almost 5 percent growth in 2013. Once again, construction and manufacturing led the recovery. In 2013, there were large increases in retail trade and health care, leading to the highest annual growth rate in a decade. The forecast is for slightly slower growth in 2014, but this is partially due to the way percent change calculations are made. Simply maintaining the new higher level of activity yields a lower percent change.

Manufacturing remains large and diverse for a small rural economy. It accounts for almost 20 percent of the economic base. Manufacturing was the largest basic industry in Fergus County until the recent recovery on farms and ranches.

The largest manufacturing firms include fabricated metal manufacturing, a commercial refrigeration manufacturer, and a firm producing plastic and rubber products. All three manufacturing sectors have experienced recent growth. The recession impacts on manufacturing were primarily in terms of wages rather than employment. At their lowest point, wages (adjusted for inflation) dropped about 15 percent while employment decreased only 6 percent.

The agricultural sector includes not only farms and ranches but also the firms that directly supply them. For example, farm implement dealers are technically classified in wholesale trade. These farm and ranch suppliers began to expand as agricultural sector conditions improved in the mid to late years of the last decade. Even so, there remains significant year-to-year volatility in agriculture.

State and federal governments have a variety of regional service...