Fates upon the waters.

• Author: Kleeschulte, Chuck
• Position: Alaska's 1990 fishing forecast

Fates Upon The Waters

FOR THOSE WHO EARN THEIR livings in Alaska's fishing industry, 1989 was a surprising, record-setting year in more ways than one. It marked the year of the largest salmon catch of all time, according to the latest state Department of Fish and Game statistics. In 1989, fishermen landed 156.2 million salmon, weighing nearly 700 million pounds.

That catch was nearly 10 million more salmon than tallied in 1985, the previous record-smashing year. Nearly 30 million more fish than preseason predictions called for, the harvest also proved profitable for most Alaska fishermen.

According to still incomplete winter estimates, fishermen netted $505 million from last year's catch. Although $237 million less than fishermen received in 1988 - a year of historic high fish prices - the sum is the second highest take in state history. The payout does not include the millions of dollars paid by Exxon to compensate fishermen for not fishing as a result of the record-setting March 24, 1989, wreck of the tanker Exxon Valdez. The Good Friday grounding of the supertanker on Bligh Reef spread 10.8 million gallons of crude oil around the waters of Prince William Sound.

The oil spill cast a long shadow over the 1989 season, forcing commercial fishing closures in the Montague, Southwestern and Eshamy districts and parts of the Northern and Northwestern districts of Prince William Sound. It also caused the complete closure of the Central District drift gillnet fishery in Cook Inlet and the almost complete closure of fishing in waters around Kodiak.

The question, as the state prepares to mark the one-year anniversary of the spill and awaits late spring weather to see how well Mother Nature's crashing waves broke up oil over the winter, is what the spill's aftereffects will mean to the state's fishing industry this summer. Another key question is what the season will be like from the standpoint of fish availability, price and marketability, notwithstanding the residual effects of the spill.

The second question appears to be the easier of the two to answer. Fred Richards, senior vice president of National Bank of Alaska in Seattle and an expert on fish markets, says, "It looks like Southeast fishermen and processors could be especially hard hit this year, while it could be an average year for Kodiak, assuming the oil spill does no further damage. It is not going to be an easy year for the industry, that's for sure."

Adds Merry Tuten, former director of the state's Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute, "There are no more easy years on tap for the Alaska fishing industry. It has become unbelievably competitive in the marketplace, and the competition is only going to get worse, not better. With all the new players and all the new products in the marketplace, 1990, regardless of fish returns, is guaranteed to be a tough year for the Alaskan industry."

Geron Bruce, executive director of the United Southeast Alaska Gillnetters Association, based in Juneau, says, "No one is abnormally apprehensive about 1990. Still, everything appears to be shaping up to cause 1990 to be a challenging year. As a...