Farming and Ranching: Price Declines and Exports Make for a Challenging Year.

• Author: Haynes, George

Montana's farmers and ranchers experienced another challenging year in 2019, with lower prices impacting grain and pulse crop producers, and international trade issues concerning both crop and livestock producers. Since January 2019, Montana wheat and calf prices have declined by over 15 percent. In general, agricultural prices have been hovering around breakeven levels for the past couple of years. Price forecasts for the next five years suggest steady prices in wheat and other grain markets, and somewhat higher prices in the hay and cattle markets.

Crop Production and Prices

Crop production has returned to normal production levels over the past two years. A favorable growing season resulted in higher production for many wheat, barley and hay producers throughout most of Montana. Total production of winter wheat increased by 21 percent, primarily because of additional harvested acres. Total production of barley increased by 32 percent because of additional harvest acres and 4 percent higher average yields. Finally, alfalfa and grass hay production increased slightly, because of increased hay acreage, although average yields were slightly lower.

A relatively good production year was met with mixed prices for grain, pulses and hay by early fall. All wheat and barley prices trended downward in 2019. Winter wheat prices decreased by nearly 19 percent; spring wheat and barley prices were over 5 percent lower than the previous year. Pulse prices trended downward with lentil prices declining by 15 percent and dry peas and dry beans prices declining slightly. Hay prices remained stable to slightly lower than the previous year; however, price forecasts for hay are optimistic. Price forecasts for the next five years suggest steady prices in the wheat, barley and pulse markets.

Livestock (Cattle) Production and Prices

U.S. beef production increased by less 1 percent in 2019. U.S. beef production forecasts suggest that production will...