Fair weather predicted for Fairbanks.

• Author: Martin, Ingrid
• Position: Fairbanks, Alaska - Economic Review & Forecast

The military buildup on Fort Wainwright that has been credited with cushioning Fairbanks from the worst effects of Alaska's recession - and, according to some, letting this town get back on its feet - is winding down. The deployment of the Sixth Light Infantry Division, relocating here from Anchorage, is almost complete.

Numerous indicators point to a stabilized Fairbanks economy and provide optimism that 1991 will prove overall to be an even better year than 1990. According to figures compiled by the Alaska Department of Labor, the Fairbanks economy grew nearly 4 percent in 1989, based on statistics tracking non-agricultural jobs. That trend continued this year, although to a lesser degree: Numbers so far confirm the 3 percent growth predicted earlier.

In 1991, Fairbanks is expected to experience continuing but seemingly stunted growth; the increase is pegged at a mere 1. 1 percent. Only the construction industry is forecast to lose ground, according to a review of Fairbanks' prospects by labor department economist Holly Stinson in a recent issue of Alaska Economic Trends. But that decline will be significant enough to offset progress in most other categories.

One reason for the shrinking construction picture is that building on Fort Wainwright, in conjunction with the buildup of the Sixth Light Infantry Division over the past three years, is slowing down after several exceptionally busy seasons. That activity peaked in 1988 and 1989; projects exceeded $100 million both years.

This year, post officials listed close to $90 million in projects. For 1991, that figure is expected to plunge to $35 million. The good news is that although construction will fall off, the injection of money from Fort Wainwright, through payroll and contractual services, should total close to $82 million in 1991.

While significantly less than the $103 million tallied in 1989, and down from the $99 million estimate for this year, the 1991 contribution will still account for about 9 percent of the money flowing into the local economy. Beginning in 1992, totals are expected to level off between $70 million and $75 million.

Military spending at Eielson Air Force Base also makes a sizable contribution to the local economy. The Air Force pumped almost $55.7 million into the community in 1989, with similar totals expected for 1990 and next year.

In addition, the base hopes to begin work on a new vehicle maintenance facility and a new supply complex within the next year, as well as to upgrade its sewage treatment plant. Projected costs aren't available yet.

Some predict Eielson's personnel roster could grow in the next year or two, particularly if politics dictate redeployment of forces from overseas areas. According to the former commander of the 343rd Tactical Fighter Wing, Col. David Dingee, it is one of several bases that has facilities to support more aircraft and air-crew training opportunities.

Air Force officials say there are no immediate plans for expansion at the base, although ranks could swell for the 168th Air Refueling Squadron, Eielson's tenant Alaska Air National Guard unit. According to spokesman Maj. Jim Alonzo, the Department of Defense recently upped the squadron's authorization to 704 personnel slots, only half of which are filled to date.

The majority of the remaining...