Facing the economics of climate change: Alaska's climate has changed significantly in recent memory.

AuthorLarsen, Peter

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Alaska's climate has changed more rapidly than almost anywhere else on the planet. Over the past 50 years, locations all across Alaska have reported significant temperature increases with the statewide annual average up about 4 degrees Fahrenheit over that same period. Some places, such as Talkeetna, have warmed (+5.4 F) even more than the statewide average, while other locations have warmed less than the average (e.g., Kodiak at +1.7 F).

According to scientists, these changes have been accompanied by extensive melting of glaciers, thawing of permanently frozen ground (permafrost), increased wildfire activity, shifting wildlife habitat, retreat and thinning of sea ice, and increased coastal erosion from storm activity.

It is inaccurate to conclusively state that all of Alaska's warming is caused by humans because our Arctic climate has a high degree of natural variability (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation) relative to other places. However, an international panel of the world's leading climate experts has concluded that there is at least a 90 percent chance that humans have fundamentally altered the global climate by releasing greenhouse gases (GHG) into the atmosphere.

A CONSENSUS OF CLIMATE MODELS PROJECT ADDITIONAL CHANGES FOR ALASKA

The most state-of-the-art climate models available, called Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation models, project even more change for Alaska in the coming decades.

"Middle of the road" climate models project that Alaska's annual temperature could increase by another 1 degree to 6 degrees F over the next two decades. In fact, every one of the 21 climate models coming to us from research institutes all over the world show significant increases in temperature for Alaska. Many of these complex models perform well when replicating Alaska's historical climate in statistical tests to gauge their accuracy.

Given this consensus, it is important to research how natural and social systems may respond to these projected changes, as well as the policies enacted to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

ECONOMISTS AND CLIMATE CHANGE: TWO SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT

There are two basic schools of thought in the subfield of climate change economics: 1) vulnerability assessment and 2) policy impacts related to mitigating GHG emissions.

Economic vulnerability to climate change involves estimating the potential risks to sectors (or components) of the economy given projected climate change. For example, estimating the costs (and benefits) of relocating communities away from areas that face...

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