Facing the Blob: Challenges facing Alaska's seafood industry.

• Author: Simonelli, Isaac Stone
• Position: RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT SPECIAL SECTION / FISHERIES

Challenging statewide salmon harvests have dominated headlines, with record-high sockeye production in Bristol Bay being the state's primary saving grace. However, salmon are not the only fish in the sea keeping the state's fisheries afloat, with many fishermen relying on groundfish, herring, and miscellaneous shellfish to make ends meet. Some fishermen use alternative fisheries as a way to balance their portfolios, while others focus entirely on a single target species ranging from Dungeness crab to sablefish. "In a typical year, Alaska's most valuable fisheries [measured by value of harvest] include salmon, pollock, Pacific cod, crab, halibut, and black cod," says Garrett Evridge, an economist with McDowell Group, an Alaska-based research firm.

In 2017, salmon was the most valuable fish group. Harvest of all five salmon species totaled more than $781 million in ex-vessel value, the amount paid to fishermen for their catch. However, Evridge notes that 2018 has been a disappointing year for many salmon fisheries, a statewide concern.

"Salmon across the state have come in weaker than forecast, particularly in the North Gulf of Alaska," says Bert Lewis, the Central Region supervisor of the Division of Commercial Fisheries for the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADFG). "In the region I work, we saw some of the lowest returns of sockeye salmon in recent history with the exception of Bristol Bay, where we had the biggest run on record."

The sockeye salmon harvest is estimated to be 37 percent of the recent ten-year average, making it the smallest since 1975--all other smaller harvests date back to the 1800s.

The "blob"--a warm water anomaly that washed into the Gulf of Alaska in 2015--is thought to be the culprit. With most sockeye salmon spending three years in the ocean, those returning this year initially swam out into warmer waters, which researchers speculate disrupted the food webs that support the salmon, decreasing their survivorship and resulting in poor returns this year.

"That concept is supported by the record return we saw in Bristol Bay, with close to 65 million sockeye returning that, in 2015, came out into the Bering Sea, which did not have this warm-water anomaly," Lewis says.

However, poor harvests weren't limited to sockeye: Chinook, chum, and pink numbers all came in low.

"In the Southeast, total salmon harvest will be about 30 percent of the recent ten-year average, due primarily to poor pink salmon run, since pink salmon usually make up most of the harvest," says Steve Heinl, a regional research biologist for ADFG in Southeast.

"Pink salmon harvest is 19 percent of the recent ten-year average and the smallest since 1976," Heinl says. "Pink harvest will be less than half of the harvest in 2016 [18.4 million fish], which spurred a formal declaration of disaster."

Levels are well below ADFG's forecast of 23 million pink salmon, though only slightly below the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast of 10 million to 23 million.

As of late August, chum salmon harvest to date was 69 percent of the recent ten-year average; Chinook harvest was at 30 percent of recent ten-year average; and coho harvest was on track to be lowest in thirty years, says Heinl.

Though state numbers are low, harvest success varied dramatically among systems. In Southeast, there were excellent Sockeye runs at Chilkoot Lake and Redoubt Lake, which stood in stark contrast to poor runs in places such as Situk River, where the fishery was closed for most of the season.

In the Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim (AYK) region, the fall chum and coho salmon directed commercial fisheries were still harvesting into the second week of September.

"The most notable change to AYK Region commercial fisheries is the decline in Chinook salmon harvest in recent years. Similar to other areas of the state, AYK Region Chinook salmon production and annual run sizes have declined over the past decade," explains John Linderman, the regional supervisor for ADFG in AYK. "We have seen modest increases to Chinook run abundance in more recent years, but it remains below historical levels. This has resulted in restrictions and closures to commercial Chinook salmon fisheries and restrictions to subsistence Chinook fisheries throughout the region."

Commercial fishing numbers for AYK do not include any from the Kuskokwim area, as there have been no commercial...