Exploring Variation in the Strength of Association of a Validated Recidivism Risk Score With Seven Common Measures of Juvenile Recidivism: A Research Note

• Author: Sonja E. Siennick,Jhon A. Pupo
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/15412040221115056
• Published date: 01 January 2023
• Date: 01 January 2023
• Subject Matter: Articles

Article

Youth Violence and Juvenile Justice

2023, Vol. 21(1) 72–80

© The Author(s) 2022

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DOI: 10.1177/15412040221115056

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Exploring Variation in the

Strength of Association of a

Validated Recidivism Risk Score

With Seven Common Measures

of Juvenile Recidivism: A

Research Note

Sonja E. Siennick

1

and Jhon A. Pupo

1



Abstract

The purpose of this study was to compare the predictive strength of a previously validated risk

score across seven different operationalizations of juvenile recidivism. Drawing on data from the

Florida portion of the Measuring Juvenile Reoffending Study, the study examines two research

questions. First, do recidivism risk scores signif‌icantly predict a variety of measures of juvenile

recidivism? And second, do risk scores exert statistically different effects on different measures of

juvenile recidivism? The f‌indings revealed that risk score signif‌icantly predicted all seven measures

of juvenile recidivism. In addition, the only evidence of statistically different associations across

measures of recidivism came from marker event (i.e., types of system contact) comparisons. Total

risk score was a signif‌icantly stronger predictor of referral than of adjudication/conviction and a

stronger predictor of adjudication and commitment. Altogether, our results highlight the im-

portance of validating risk assessment scores on multiple different operationalizations of juvenile

recidivism.

Keywords

juvenile justice, recidivism, measurement, risk assessment

The prediction of juvenile recidivism has considerable policy and research relevance. Consistent

with this, there has been a rise in the use of risk/needs assessment (RNA) tools by local and state

juvenile justice agencies. Indeed, as of 2020, 42 states had implemented a single RNA tool

statewide (Juvenile Justice Geography, Policy, Practice and Statistics [JJGPS], 2016). However,

1

Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA

Corresponding Author:

Sonja E. Siennick, College of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Florida State University, 112 S. Copeland Street,

Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA.

Email: ssiennick@fsu.edu