Exploring the Presidential Electoral Map for 2000.

• Author: BRESLER, ROBERT J.
• Position: Brief Article

THE 2000 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION will be one of the hardest fought in decades. The stakes for both parties are enormous. Whichever one wins the presidency could well capture both the House and Senate, and the next president will make appointments that will determine the direction of the judicial branch for decades. Most important, the possible retirements of Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist and Associate Justices Sandra Day O'Connor and John Paul Stevens will provide the new president with an opportunity to shape the closely divided Supreme Court on the issues of abortion, affirmative action, and federalism. During the next administration, the president and Congress could be forced to make some momentous choices concerning the future of the tax code, the Social Security System, Medicare, and educational funding. Given these stakes, it is obvious that the election will be hotly contested, with all the nastiness that characterizes present politics.

Barring some unforeseen and dramatic event, the presidential election will be as close as it will be hard fought. The evidence from recent elections and current polls shows the country closely divided along partisan lines. In 1999, the Republicans swept the Virginia legislature, while the Democrats captured the governor's seat in Mississippi and gained mayoralty seats in Columbus, Ohio, and Indianapolis, Ind. The polls for the Congressional election show the parties about even, and there are around a dozen seats in the Senate that could swing one way or the other in November.

Through most of 1999, the polls showed Gov. George W. Bush of Texas with healthy leads over both Vice-Pres. Al Gore and former Sen. Bill Bradley. If that race hasn't already tightened by the time of this publication, it certainly will in the near future. Bush's advantage of being a new face will wear thin in the heat of a partisan fight and against the intrusive exposure of the media. Already, his college grades and SAT scores have been uncovered by hostile liberal journalists, who probably were enraged by Linda Tripp's invasion of Monica Lewinsky's privacy. We will see more of that as the campaign progresses.

Gore's problem with "Clinton fatigue" may fade a bit, as he establishes himself as his own man. Should Bradley upset Gore in the primaries, he will take away whatever advantage is left from Bush's being the new face.

A look at the basic map of the Electoral College for 2000 gives another reason why this election will be...