Explaining Media and Congressional Attention to Global Climate Change, 1969-2005: An Empirical Test of Agenda-Setting Theory

• Author: Arnold Vedlitz, Xinsheng Liu,Eric Lindquist
• Date: 01 June 2011
• Published date: 01 June 2011
• DOI: 10.1177/1065912909346744
• Subject Matter: Articles

Political Research Quarterly
64(2) 405 –419
Explaining Media and Congressional
© 2011 University of Utah
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Attention to Global Climate Change,
DOI: 10.1177/1065912909346744
http://prq.sagepub.com
1969–2005: An Empirical Test of
Agenda-Setting Theory
Xinsheng Liu,1 Eric Lindquist,1 and Arnold Vedlitz1
Abstract
Agenda theories suggest that problem indicator, focusing event, and information feedback enhance issue attention.
However, few studies have systematically tested this. This study, using time series data and vector autoregression
(VAR), examines how climate problem indicator, high-profile international event, and climate science feedback influence
media and congressional attention to global warming and climate change. The findings confirm that these attention-
grabbing factors indeed generally promote issue salience, but these factors may work differently across agenda venues.
Attention inertia, interagenda interaction, and partisan advantage on agenda setting are also included and analyzed in
the VAR modeling. Implications of the study and recommendations for future research are discussed in conclusion.
Keywords
news media, congress, issue attention, agenda setting, global warming, climate change
1. Introduction
policy system (Jones and Baumgartner 2005; Jones 1994,
2001; Baumgartner and Jones 1993). Kingdon and Jones
The question of why and how some issues are placed on
and Baumgartner may differ in the terms they use to
the agenda has long been of interest to political scientists
describe what factors may promote issue attention, but
and other social science scholars. At any given time,
they all agree that the dynamics of incoming information
policy makers are confronted with many complex public
sources and flows, reflected in changing problem indica-
issues. For a public issue to be seriously considered and
tors, occurrence of focusing events, and information
handled in the policy-making process, a necessary condi-
feedback are essential for understanding how issues
tion is that the issue must capture the attention of policy
move from obscurity to visibility on policy agendas.
elites (Cohen 1963; Cobb and Elder 1983; Baumgartner
In this study, we draw upon the common theoretical
and Jones 1993; Jones 1994; Rochefort and Cobb 1994;
elements in agenda theories and apply them to the issue
Kingdon 1995; Jones and Baumgartner 2005).
of global climate change. We are particularly interested in
One important question for agenda-setting scholars is
examining whether and how problem indicators, focus-
what factors may contribute to higher levels of attention
ing events, and scientific feedback induced the U.S. news
paid to a public issue. In Agendas, Alternatives, and
media and Congress to be attentive to global climate
Public Policies (1995, 90-103), Kingdon argues that
change during the period from 1969 through 2005. First,
“problem indicators,” “focusing events,” and “feedback”
we briefly review existing research on what factors
can facilitate bringing a public issue to decision makers’
attention and help that issue achieve higher status on the
1
agenda. In a series of important works on agenda setting,1
Texas A&M University, college Station, TX, USA
Jones and Baumgartner argue, like Kingdon, that relevant
Corresponding Author:
information surrounding an issue (including problem
Xinsheng Liu, Institute for Science, Technology and Public Policy, Bush
indicators and information feedback) is important to
School of Government and Public Services, Texas A&M University,
4350 TAMU, college Station, TX 77843-4350, USA; phone: (979)
decision makers’ attention, but so too is the significant
854-4120; fax: (979) 862-8856
event that provides sudden information shock to the
E-mail: xliu@bushschool.tamu.edu

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406
Political Research Quarterly 64(2)
contribute to capturing the attention of policy elites.
indicates certain conditions within the energy sector), but
Second, we develop our hypotheses and describe how we
most indicators (such as unemployment rates, economic
measure the dependent and independent variables as well
growth rates, crime rates, mortality rates, high school
as how we collect our data. Third, we employ the vector
dropout rates, or highway death rates) are presented to
autoregressive (VAR) method for hypothesis testing and
the public and policy elites in an abstract, index-type,
present the results of analysis. Finally, we summarize our
quantitative format from secondhand data sources.
main findings, discuss some implications of our study,
For the issue of global warming and climate change,
and make a few recommendations for future research.
there are many kinds of factual and baseline information
These empirical tests of attention-driving forces of
indicators, ranging from greenhouse gas emissions to
agenda theory are among the first to systematically exam-
precipitation patterns, from arctic ice sheet melting to sea
ine and test the key underlying relational elements of the
level rise, from complicated long-term climate change
theory.
projections to short-term extreme weather conditions,
and from climate-related economic losses and infectious
2. Attention-Grabbing Factors
diseases to land-use practices. Several studies have
explored how short-term, weather-related, extreme con-
in Agenda Setting
ditions (such as unusually hot temperatures and droughts),
Many scholars have examined various factors that
amplified by interested constituencies, may contribute to
contribute to a higher level of attention to a particular
increase attention to the climate change issue (Ungar
issue. Earlier studies find that issue attention levels
1992; Shanahan and Good 2000), but no previous study
are associated with expansion of political conflicts
has examined the relationship between long-term, sys-
(Schattschneider 1960), issue attention cycles (Downs
tem-level, climate change indicators and national media
1972), specific issue characteristics such as social signifi-
and congressional attention. In this study, we use two sys-
cance and temporal relevance (Cobb and Elder 1983),
tematic time series of climate change indicators—the
policy elites’ interests and ideologies (Vertzberger
atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO ) concentration levels
2
1990), and various issue-framing effects (Fiske and
and the U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI)—to examine
Taylor 1984; Hilgartner and Bosk 1988; Iyengar and
the effect of problem indicators on U.S. policy elites’
Kinder 1987; Iyengar 1990). In Kingdon’s multiple
attention to climate change. We shall return to these two
streams theory (1995) and Jones and Baumgartner’s
indictors in the variable measurement section.
punctuated equilibrium theory (2005; see also Baumgart-
ner and Jones 1993; Jones 1994, 2001), issue attention
2.2. Focusing Events and Information Shocks
dynamics is systematically addressed from an agenda
system perspective. Both theories identify several major
According to agenda theorists, the availability of prob-
system factors that can bring a public problem to the
lem indicators and their amplification by motivated
attention of decision makers. In Kingdon’s theory, atten-
stakeholders may not be enough to cause a condition to
tion attractors in agenda setting include changing problem
rise on the policy agenda as a problem. Something must
indicators, focusing events, and information feedback.
happen to push that concern above the noise threshold of
In Jones and Baumgartner’s theory, issue attention is
other issues. Such factors are referred to as focusing or
enhanced (sometimes suddenly enhanced) by the intru-
triggering events (Kingdon 1995; Birkland 1997, 1998;
sion of new (or previously overlooked) information into
see also Cobb and Elder 1983; Dearing and Rogers 1996)
the policy-agenda–setting process, and the intrusion of
or, in Jones and Baumgartner’s model, as information
new information is usually associated with changing
shocks. Much of the existing work on focusing events/
social conditions and problem indicators, significant
information shocks has concentrated on natural or man-
events, and information feedback that is looped back into
made crises and disasters. Birkland, in particular, has
the policy system.
advanced our understanding of the “politics of disasters,”
or the reaction to a focusing event by various stakehold-
2.1. Problem Indicators
ers including the media, decision makers, and interest
groups (Birkland 1996, 1997, 1998, 2004; see also Birk-
For both Kingdon and Jones and Baumgartner, one factor
land and Nath 2000; Lawrence and Birkland 2004).
that may increase attention to a problem is the changing
For agenda scholars, focusing events/information
factual indicators surrounding the problem. Problem indi-
shocks, with the cumulative effect of raising awareness
cators may come in various shapes, sizes, and formats
of the problem, can reinforce existing indicators and
and from multiple sources. Some indicators may come
become a principal lever for getting an issue moved to the
from direct experience (paying more at the gas station
front of the line (Kingdon 1995; Baumgartner and Jones

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Liu et al.
407
1993; Jones 1994; Birkland 1997, 1998). Prominent
scholarly books), the science community provides data
examples of focusing events include the Three Mile
on natural and social...