Experts Dial Back Expectations Of New Nuclear Arms Race.

• Position: BUDGET MATTERS

* Pentagon officials and other observers are sounding the alarm about the accelerating pace of China's expansion of its nuclear capabilities. Will Washington respond by changing its plans for its atomic arsenal? Not necessarily, experts say.

In its latest annual report on "Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China," released in November, die Defense Department said the nation has started building at least three new fields of intercontinental ballistic missile silos which could contain hundreds of new ICBMs.

"Over the next decade, the PRC aims to modernize, diversify and expand its nuclear forces. The PRC is investing in, and expanding, the number of its land-, sea- and air-based nuclear delivery platforms and constructing the infrastructure necessary to support this major expansion," the report said.

"The PRC likely intends to have at least 1,000 warheads by 2030, exceeding the pace and size the DoD projected in 2020," it added.

In the next five years, China's arsenal of ICBM-based nuclear warheads capable of threatening the United States is expected to grow to roughly 200, according to the study.

In July, China also tested a long-range missile that U.S. officials say circled the Earth and deployed a hypersonic glide vehicle, an event which some observers have called a "Sputnik moment."

Hypersonic weapons--which could potentially carry nuclear warheads--can fly faster than Mach 5 and are highly maneuverable, which makes it difficult for traditional missile defense systems to track and destroy them.

Former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. John Hyten has said China could be pursuing a first-strike capability against the United States.

However, Michael O'Hanlon, a military analyst at the Brookings Institution, told National Defense he doesn't anticipate that recent revelations about Beijing's capabilities will lead to a ramp-up in investments in U.S. nuclear forces beyond what was already called for in long-standing plans for strategic modernization, which have largely been in place since the Obama administration.

To replace legacy systems, the Pentagon has already been pursuing next-generation ICBMs, long-range bombers, ballistic missile submarines and air-launched cruise missiles, among other capabilities. The Congressional Budget Office in April 2021 estimated that U.S. nuclear forces would cost a total of $634 billion over the next decade, an...