Events, candidates, and the 2004 election.

• Author: Bresler, Robert J.
• Position: State of the Nation

NOT SINCE PRES. JIMMY CARTER'S futile attempts to free the hostages in Iran and tame raging inflation at home do events promise to dictate the outcome of a presidential election. Since 1980, these races have taken place in a reasonably placid milieu--no American troops in combat and an economy in a general state of balance. Although Bill Clinton and Al Gore demagoged the economic issue in 1992, calling it the worst economy in 50 years, the nation already was well on its way out of recession. Issues of value and culture, against the background of the Clinton scandals, probably determined the outcome of the 2000 election, which is best described as a tie.

We are still, in many regards, a 50-50 nation. George W. Bush was elected by a whisker: the U.S. Senate is divided 51-49; and the Republicans hold a majority in the House of Representatives by a mere 11 votes. For the first time since the New Deal, polls show self-identified Republicans equal to self-identified Democrats, with each party at 31%. This marks an uneven but long-term gain among Republicans, to a new high, and the fewest Democrats in annual averages since 1981. Until recent years, the Republicans have been competitive at the presidential level, with even a slight advantage, but the Democrats have dominated in the subpresidential races. Now, many mote Senate and gubernatorial contests are up for grabs, as long as there is no incumbent. The House, however, is gerrymandered to protect each party's incumbents, so fewer races are competitive, but the numerical balance between the two parties in that chamber has been extremely close over the last 10 years.

The polls, meanwhile, portend an interesting presidential race come November. In all likelihood, the majority of voters have made up their minds about Bush--hard-core Republicans love him and hard-core Democrats despise him. Both sides are likely to wage sophisticated campaigns designed to rally their ardent supporters for an increased turnout. For the Democrats, this means minorities, unions, and suburban and upscale liberals. The Republicans are banking on the religiously devout, rural voters, and the corporate managerial class.

The undecided are a more elusive bunch. They generally are the least-informed and -involved voters. The "somewhat neutral" probably are between 10-20% of the electorate. They are the minority that holds the balance of power, particularly in key states such as Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan, Ohio...