Evansville forecast 2021.

• Author: Khayum, Mohammed

Sustained expansion of economic activity in the Evansville economy that spanned the past decade was dramatically disrupted in the first quarter of 2020 by the COVID-19 pandemic. Policymakers, employers and employees grappled with the challenging trade-offs between health concerns and economic activity. As result of efforts to combat the spread of the virus, there was a discernable slowdown in economic activity. The unemployment rate rose from 3.4% to 9.2% between January and June. A gradual slackening of restrictions aimed at curtailing community transmission during the third quarter resulted in a relatively rapid rebound in output and employment, highlighting the likelihood of a short-lived COVID-19-induced recession in the Evansville region.

Projects and announcements

During 2020, a number of projects and announcements of future fixed investments provide the basis for expected increases in employment and output in 2021. These include groundbreaking of a facility for a supplier of food packaging materials, the construction of a 100,000-square-foot shell building in an Industrial Park in Warrick County, the announcement of plans by a manufacturer of commercial and residential garage door parts and accessories to double its Evansville facility, and ongoing activity associated with the fixed investments that occurred in 2019.

Current indicators

Once all data are released for 2020, nominal personal income is estimated to have increased by 7.1% and real gross metro product is estimated to have increased by 2.2%. In 2021, Evansville metro area real output is forecast to increase by 9.2%, the number of jobs is projected to increase by around 500 jobs, and nominal personal income growth is forecast to decrease by 2%.

The unemployment rate in the Evansville metro increased from 3.4% in January 2020 to 5.1% in September 2020. There was also an increase in the national unemployment rate from 3.6% to 7.9% over the same time period. Job gains occurred primarily in the information, finance and insurance sector, as well as the professional, scientific and technical services sector. The primary activities experiencing jobs losses were wholesale and retail trade, the administrative, support, waste management and remediation services sector, construction, and manufacturing.

The manufacturing sector...