Evansville forecast 2018.

• Author: Khayum, Mohammed
• Position: Statistical data

The advanced-industry sector, which consists of advanced manufacturing, energy and high-tech services, is characterized by a relatively high concentration of science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) workers and a relatively high level of research and development expenditures.

A report from the Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program, "America's advanced industries: New trends," highlights the role of the advanced-industry sector as a source of economic growth and productivity-driving innovations. (1) In comparison to national averages for the shares of total employment and output, the Evansville metro area is well positioned to benefit from strategies aimed at enhancing its advanced-industry sector. While the advanced-industry sector accounts for 8.7 percent of workers and 17.2 percent of the output of the U.S. economy, the comparable figures for the Evansville metropolitan statistical area are 8.4 percent and 24.2 percent, respectively.

Construction activity, including the medical campus in downtown Evansville, a land-based casino and renovations at the Evansville Regional Airport, served as a timely buffer to the drag on output and employment resulting from the closure of Alcoa's smelting plant in 2016. The boost in economic activity linked to investments in 2017 will continue in 2018 as projects related to the Southwest Indiana Regional Cities Initiative continue to be implemented and construction begins on a major nitrogen fertilizer production plant in the Evansville metro area.

During 2017, relatively strong growth in the construction, professional and business services, and health care sectors combined with increases in personal income and announcements of future fixed investments to provide the basis for projecting increased employment, output and income in 2018.

Once all data are released for 2017, nominal personal income is estimated to have increased by 3.4 percent and real gross metro product is estimated to have increased by 1.7 percent. In 2018, Evansville metro area output is forecasted to increase by 2.0 percent, the number of jobs is projected to increase by 1,500, nominal personal income growth is forecasted to increase by 3.7 percent, while the unemployment rate is projected to be 3.4 percent.

The unemployment rate in the Evansville metro fell from 4.5 percent in January 2017, to 3.3 percent in September 2017. There was also a decline in the national unemployment rate from 5.1 percent to 4.1 percent over the...