Evansville forecast 2012.

• Author: Khayum, Mohammed
• Position: Statistical data

Unease about the economy's performance in 2011 and heightened concerns about the likelihood of a double-dip recession have raised fundamental questions about the role and impact of macroeconomic policies, our understanding of the driving forces behind the changing structure and dynamics of the U.S. economy, and the adjustment processes underlying consumer spending and business investment. At the same time, there is increased focus on investigating the relative influence of technological unemployment and wealth disparity on the trajectory of the economy over the past two decades. For much of 2011, the evidence shows that there continues to be considerable variation across metro areas with regard to the timing, strength and persistence of the recovery. While previous postwar recessions ranged in length from six months to 16 months for the national economy (averaging about 10.5 months), the 2007-09 recession was the longest recession in the postwar period, at 18 months. In addition, the 2007-09 recession was the deepest recession in the postwar period; at their lowest points, national employment fell 6.3 percent and output fell 5.1 percent. In comparison, employment fell by just over 5 percent and output fell by 5 percent in the Evansville metro area.

In the aftermath of the 2007-2009 recession, the recovery of the Evansville metro economy has become progressively stronger. Following decreases in output and employment in 2008 and 2009, increases in real output, personal income and real retail sales that started in 2010 continued in 2011. The dynamics of the Evansville area labor market reflected these developments. The unemployment rate fell from 9.7 percent in January 2010, to 7.1 percent in September 2011, compared with a drop in the national unemployment rate from 9.5 percent to 9.1 percent over the same time period. In previous business cycles, aggregate hours and employment have frequently reached their troughs later than when the recession has officially ended. The decrease in the unemployment rate in the Evansville metro area during 2011 suggests that household employment has started to rebound at a faster rate than the national economy.

An examination of the output and employment performance of the national economy since June 2009 indicates that the current recovery has been relatively slow compared to the other post-World War II recoveries and the slowest in terms of employment growth compared to previous postwar recessions. The...