Evaluating the impact of different spatial linkages on forum outcome interdependencies in polycentric systems

• Published date: 01 May 2023
• Author: Danielle M. McLaughlin
• Date: 01 May 2023
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/puar.13599

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Evaluating the impact of different spatial linkages on forum

outcome interdependencies in polycentric systems

Danielle M. McLaughlin

Department of Political Science, Kent State

University, Kent, Ohio, USA

Correspondence

Danielle M. McLaughlin, Department of Political

Science, Kent State University, Kent, Ohio, USA.

Email: dmclau13@kent.edu

Funding information

National Science Foundation, Grant/Award

Number: SES-0921904

Abstract

In complex polycentric systems, decisions regarding the governance of certain

subsystems (e.g., watersheds) are often determined by networks of diverse actors

who participate across a range of forums tackling interconnected collective actions

issues (e.g., water quality, biodiversity, flood management). Compounding this

structural complexity are the multifaceted interdependencies that exist between

forums across a system. Drawing on the Ecology of Games Theory (EGT), this arti-

cle investigates the impact of different types of network linkages on outcome

interdependence between forums. Using a series of spatial autoregressive models

on data collected in a Tampa Bay water governance system, I find evidence that

co-membership and organizational networks serve as pathways for outcome spill-

overs between forums. Building theory that helps elucidate how different types of

network relationships may influence outcomes across a system is critical for the

continued development of EGT and the governance of polycentric systems.

Evidence for Practice

•Forum outcomes are impacted by the collective sum of other socially and orga-

nizationally interdependent forum outcomes, with the influence of one forum

on another growing as the extent of spatial relationship between forums

increases.

•Understanding if and how different forum relations affect forum spillovers

should help public administrators and forum practitioners better understand a

forum’s role in the broader system while developing institutions designed to

better cope with the reality that forum outcomes maintain reverberating effects

across a system.

•Actors would benefit from understanding how within forum strategies, behav-

iors, and learned experiences can ripple throughout a system.

•Forums would benefit from leadership and facilitators who are more adept at

mapping forum linkages and determining how decisions in one forum may

impact interdependent forums.

Water governance systems provide a natural setting for

studies of polycentrism given they typically span jurisdic-

tional boundaries and feature diverse policy actors who

participate across a range of forums

1

contending with a

complicated web of issues like water quality, biodiversity,

and flood management (Lubell, 2013; Ostrom, 2005).

Compounding the structural complexity of polycentric

systems are the multifaceted interdependencies that exist

between forums across a system (e.g., forums linked

socially when they share overlapping actors; forums

linked ecologically when they address overlapping policy

issues; Berardo & Lubell, 2019; Angst, 2019;

Kimmich, 2013). Research utilizing the Ecology of Games

Theory (EGT) seeks to understand how the structure and

function of these complex polycentric systems impact, for

example, forum outcomes. Critically, EGT advocates a

Received: 21 December 2021 Revised: 7 December 2022 Accepted: 13 December 2022

DOI: 10.1111/puar.13599

This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribu tion and reproduction in any medium, provided the

original work is properly cited.

© 2022 The Author. Public Administration Review published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Public Administration.

552 Public Admin Rev. 2023;83:552–569.

wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/puar

systemic perspective when studying polycentric systems,

incorporating the impact of the broader governance

arrangement on individual forum outcomes. This holistic

approach is highlighted by two key tenets of the EGT:

(i) forums, though structurally independent of one

another, often operate interdependently (Lubell, 2013;

Lubell, Henry, & McCoy, 2010), and (ii) forums can be

linked in many substantive ways (e.g., socially, organiza-

tionally, ecologically, issue-based; McLaughlin, Mewhir-

ter, & Lubell, 2022; Angst, 2019; Bodin & Nohrstedt, 2016;

Mewhirter & Berardo, 2019).

This interdependent governance structure implies that

when forums are substantively linked, the decisions and

outcomes derived by a single forum may be co-

determined by dynamics operating in other forums across

asystem(Kimmich,2013;Lubell,2013;McGinnis,2011;

Mewhirter & McLaughlin, 2021). For example, forums com-

posed of actors representing diverse organizations and

issue interests have been found to promote ecosystem-

level learning that leads to more integrated outcomes in

socially linked forums (Mewhirter, McLaughlin, &

Fischer, 2019). Recently, others have found that forums

linked by co-membership networks can spawn conflict

contagion between forums (McLaughlin et al., 2022)and

produce negative externalities (Mewhirter, Lubell, &

Berardo, 2018;Mewhirter&McLaughlin,2021).

Although this emerging body of work emphasizes the

importance of understanding and accounting for system-

wide interdependencies, two key gaps in the literature

remain. First, while theoretical work acknowledges that

many forms of interdependencies existing in complex gov-

ernance systems may influence forum outcomes, research

tends to focus exclusively on social connections between

actors and forums (McLaughlin et al., 2022;Scott&

Greer, 2019; Mewhirter & McLaughlin, 2021;Kimmich,2013;

McGinnis, 2011; Mewhirter, McLaughlin, & Fischer, 2019;see

Bodin & Nohrstedt, 2016 as an exception). Second, while

extensive work has examined the impact of (i) within forum

features (e.g., forum diversity, actor resources, etc.) and

(ii) the structure of actors’social networks on forum out-

comes, we know less about how different forum interdepen-

dencies may influence forum outcomes. This article

attempts to fill these gaps by probing the impact of differ-

ent types of forum network linkages (i.e., social, ecological,

organizational, and issue) on forum outcomes, asking if dif-

ferent types of links induce outcome spillovers between

forums? In other words, do forum outcomes partially

depend on the dynamics occurring in substantively linked

forums?Thisresearchbuildsaspatial autoregressive model

(SAR) that tests whether forum outcomes are spatially inter-

dependent on other forum outcomes.

As one of the first studies designed to test inter-forum

outcome spillover effects across different types of forum

linkages, I combine theories of polycentrism (Lubell, 2013;

Lubell et al., 2010), network management (Agranoff &

McGuire, 2001), and ecosystem management (Maes, Para-

cchini, Zulian, & Alkemade, 2012; Marten, 2001; Qiu &

Turner, 2013) to derive hypotheses. Specifically, this arti-

cle argues that forum outcomes will be impacted by the

collective sum of other (socially, ecologically, organiza-

tionally, and/or issue-based) linked forum outcomes, with

the influence of one forum on another growing as the

extent of spatial relationship between forums increases.

First, forums linked by co-members should be considering

how within-forum decisions may interact with others,

facilitating inter-forum spillovers. Second, because water-

sheds are composed of a range of ecological services

(e.g., water quality, erosion control, biodiversity) that are

naturally connected, decisions regarding one part of an

ecosystem will impact other areas of the system. Third,

forums with the same parent organizations may be struc-

tured by parallel rules and develop reputations for organi-

zational arrangements and decision-making that will

spillover to similarly organized forums. Finally, forums

tackling similar policy issues will be connected by

agenda-setting, issue-precedence, and/or homophily that

instigates interdependence between forums.

Empirical analysis draws on survey data collected from

actors involved in a polycentric water governance system

in the Tampa Bay Estuary. Tampa Bay is a large polycentric

governance system typified by multiple policy actors par-

ticipating across numerous forums designed to solve

water-related policy issues, thus providing an ideal site to

test hypotheses of interdependence. This research employs

generalized spatial two-stage least squares (GS2SLS) auto-

regressive models to examine whether forum outcomes

spillover among forums linked by social, ecological, organi-

zational, and/or issue overlap. Given polycentric systems

are characterized by many centers of decision-making that

operate interdependently (Lubell, 2013; McLaughlin,

Mewhirter, Wright II, & Feiock, 2021; Morrison et al., 2017;

Ostrom, Tiebout, & Warren, 1961), spatial econometric

models offer a way to test for evidence of outcome inter-

dependence (while also improving model fit: Franzese &

Hays, 2007; Williams & Whitten, 2015; McLaughlin

et al., 2022). Results provide support for the social and

organizational hypotheses in the Tampa Bay system.

The implications of this research are significant for

several reasons. Polycentrism hinges on concepts of insti-

tutional overlap and intertwined collective action prob-

lems that give rise to interdependence, but explicating

this overlap and determining how interdependence

impacts entire governance systems remains relatively

undetermined. This is a crucial omission to the literature

given the importance of forum outcomes as a fundamen-

tal indicator of forum longevity and ecosystem health

(Smaldino & Lubell, 2011). Building theory that helps elu-

cidate how different types of network relationships may

influence outcomes across a system is critical to continu-

ing development of the EGT and, more generally, the

practical governance of polycentric systems. Understand-

ing if and how different forum relations affect forum out-

comes should help public administrators and forum

practitioners better understand a forum’s role in the

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION REVIEW 553