Evacuation behavior of households facing compound hurricane‐pandemic threats

• Published date: 01 September 2023
• Author: Juita‐Elena (Wie) Yusuf,Jennifer L. Whytlaw,Nicole Hutton,Taiwo Olanrewaju‐Lasisi,Bridget Giles,Kaleen Lawsure,Joshua Behr,Rafael Diaz,George McLeod
• Date: 01 September 2023
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/puar.13634

SYMPOSIUM ARTICLE

Evacuation behavior of households facing compound

hurricane-pandemic threats

Juita-Elena (Wie) Yusuf

1

| Jennifer L. Whytlaw

2

| Nicole Hutton

2

|

Taiwo Olanrewaju-Lasisi

3

| Bridget Giles

4

| Kaleen Lawsure

4

|

Joshua Behr

4

| Rafael Diaz

4

| George McLeod

5

1

School of Public Service, Old Dominion

University, Norfolk, Virginia, USA

2

Department of Political Science & Geography,

Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia, USA

3

CLIR Postdoctoral Fellow in Community Data

Literacy, Carnegie Mellon University Libraries,

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA

4

Virginia Modeling, Analysis & Simulation

Center, Old Dominion University, Suffolk,

Virginia, USA

5

Center for Geospatial Science, Education, and

Analytics, Old Dominion University, Norfolk,

Virginia, USA

Correspondence

Juita-Elena (Wie) Yusuf, School of Public Service,

Old Dominion University, 2137 Constant Hall,

Norfolk, VA 23529, USA.

Email: jyusuf@odu.edu

Abstract

This study examines households’prospective evacuation behavior during a

hurricane-pandemic compound threat. Data from a 2020 survey of coastal Virginia

households help answer two questions: (1) What factors associated with the threat

and impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and hurricanes influence the prospective

evacuation behavior of households during a compound hurricane-pandemic

event? (2) What are the equity implications for emergency management policies

and practices to support evacuation and sheltering during a compound hurricane-

pandemic event? Households in the sample were split between those who stated

they would evacuate away from the at-risk region and those who would stay.

Greater household vulnerability to hurricanes and COVID-19 and having sufficient

financial resources increase the likelihood of evacuation. Higher-income house-

holds were more likely to have resources to evacuate and were less likely to suffer

financial consequences from a hurricane or pandemic. Racial minorities are more

vulnerable to the pandemic and face greater resource challenges when

evacuating.

Evidence for practice

•Households consider both the hurricane and COVID-19 threats as drivers for

evacuating away from the at-risk area, with greater vulnerability to both hazards

increasing the likelihood of a prospective evacuation.

•The household’s resource base specific to the hurricane threat—having enough

cash and/or credit to evacuate—positively influence prospective evacuation

behavior during a compound hurricane-pandemic event.

•The household’s resource base and the vulnerability of this resource

base to hurricane impacts influence whether the household anticipates

evacuating.

•Households that identified as racial minorities were less likely to have the finan-

cial resources needed for evacuating outside of the region and were more likely

to suffer negative consequences of decreased income resulting from the pan-

demic and being unable to pay the rent or mortgage due to hurricane-related

wage loss.

•Higher-income households were more likely to have sufficient case and credit to

evacuate and were less likely to be vulnerable to the negative resource effects

of the pandemic and hurricane.

Received: 4 April 2022 Revised: 28 February 2023 Accepted: 13 March 2023

DOI: 10.1111/puar.13634

This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium,

provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

© 2023 The Authors. Public Administration Review published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Public Administration.

1186 Public Admin Rev. 2023;83:1186–1201.

wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/puar

At the start of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, the

COVID-19 pandemic was taking hold, requiring adjust-

ments to emergency management strategies for hurri-

canes. Hurricane evacuation and mass sheltering were

at odds with virus contagion strategies, such as social

distancing and self-isolation (Dargin et al., 2021; Pei

et al., 2020), and concerns about virus transmission were

being considered as part of hurricane preparedness and

response. COVID-19 compounded the risks faced by resi-

dents and increased the complexity of government plan-

ning to protect the health and lives of the public (Pei

et al., 2020; Whytlaw et al., 2021; Yusuf et al., 2020).

People and groups are differentially vulnerable to haz-

ards given where they are situated within the natural and

built environments, the economic structure, and the

social and institutional fabric of a community. The health,

economic, and social impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic

broadened the definition of individuals and groups con-

sidered vulnerable (Whytlaw et al., 2021). Furthermore,

the pandemic exacerbated socio-economic and health

inequities that underpin vulnerability, negatively affecting

the ability to cope with the threat of a hurricane during

the pandemic.

When confronted with the threat of a hurricane, house-

holds must decide whether to evacuate or stay. Ordering

the evacuation and providing shelters are the govern-

ment’s responsibility. Understandinghousehold evacuation

and sheltering behavior informs the government’s

response and is particularly relevant under a behavioral

public policy framework. Knowledge of which households

will leave versus stay in the area influences the capacity to

evacuate residents out of the region, transportation rout-

ing and options, and the needs of public shelters.

During a compound event involving a hurricane and

the COVID-19 pandemic, hurricane evacuation complicates

COVID-19 virus containment and forces households to

make tradeoffs between different risk reduction strategies.

Fears about the virus and pandemic-related financial strain

make evacuation behavior difficult to predict as they may

change the propensity of households to evacuate. Fears of

contracting COVID-19 within evacuation environments

may change the decisions of households that would other-

wise evacuate and move away from areas at physical risk.

Financial strain fromthe pandemic could make households

less likely to evacuate given the needed resources of doing

so (Hill et al., 2021; Whytlaw et al., 2021).

The purpose of this article is to examine the antici-

pated evacuation behavior of households facing the com-

pound threat of the COVID-19 pandemic and a hurricane.

The research questions are: (1) What factors associated

with the threat and impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic

and a hurricane influence the prospective evacuation

behavior of households during a compound hurricane-

pandemic event? (2) What are t he equity implications for

emergency management policies and practices to sup-

port evacuation and sheltering during a compound

hurricane-pandemic event?

BEHAVIORAL PUBLIC POLICY

The COVID-19 pandemic has emphasized the need for

and relevance of the behavioral public policy approach.

Research knowledge “must speak not only to the daunt-

ing challenge of COVID-19 itself but also to policymakers,

and indeed humankind, trying to cope with future unex-

pected but high impact threats…by leveraging better

public policies and building administrative capacities to

enable more resilient, equitable and effective public ser-

vice”(Dunlop et al., 2020, p. 366). This research adopts a

behavioral approach to understand how people respond

to public policies (de Jonge et al., 2018; Sanders

et al., 2018). More specifically, this behavioral public policy

lens can be helpful in understanding household compli-

ance with policy directions, such as evacuating during a

hurricane, providing information useful for better policy

design and implementation by incorporating localized or

context-specific considerations (Jacobs, 2018).

Unlike the traditional approach, where policy makers

reward compliance or punish non-compliance and focus

on the supply side of using government resources to

affect policy outcomes, the behavioral approach recog-

nizes the demand side and the complexity of the policy

targets’behaviors. “Given that the aim of most public pol-

icy is to invoke behavioral change…compliance with

government intentions has always been an important

part of policy scholarship”(Leong & Howlett, 2020,

p. 207). The behavioral approach allows for more nuanced

investigation of how people respond to government

intervention by focusing on understanding the basis

upon which compliance is likely to occur.

The COVID-19 pandemic illustrated the challenges of

the government’s capacity to make people do what they

might not normally do, especially when facing a crisis. As

Anderson (2022) noted, the government’s use of policy

tools shapes people’s behaviors, while people simulta-

neously interpret the government’s policy instructions

through their own lenses and are shaped by their own

perceptions of risk, experiences, and resources. In this

way, “state actions and citizen attitudes combine to

shape people’s willingness to adapt in times of crisis”

(Anderson, 2022, 1). In situations such as when faced with

the threat of a hurricane during a pandemic, effective

emergency response requires voluntary cooperation and

compliance by the public (Anderson, 2022; Connolly

et al., 2020).

A key objective of emergency response planning

during a hurricane is to ensure that residents leave the

at-risk area in a timely manner and get to safety

(Dulebenets, 2021). Emergency shelters may be available

for those with medical needs or unable to evacuate, but

shelter capacity is limited. Policies are designed to protect

the public during disasters, and compliance with such poli-

cies can have life-or-death consequences (Connolly

et al., 2020; Dulebenets, 2021). Results of evacuation non-

compliance can be catastrophic, placing at risk the safety

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION REVIEW 1187