Europe in the Age of Uncertainties.

• Author: Barfod, Mikael

Donald Trump has regularly chipped away at multilateralism during his three years in power: climate change, trade wars, immigration, withdrawal from international conflicts, ambiguity about defence alliances, and even suspension of the US budget for the World Health Organization, to mention a few. EU policy, on the other hand, has always supported the UN and the multilateral approach. A traditionally open and liberal EU has a clear self-interest in preserving multilateralism. Could the EU (as I have previously argued[1]) still take the lead in forming effective international alliances to reactivate and possibly even reform multilateral structures? How can Europe take "its destiny into its own hands" as Angela Merkel suggested recently? Well said, but she is retiring in a year and a half. And meanwhile, what has the coronavirus done to Europe's destiny? Let's look at today's main challenges and opportunities.

Relations with the US

Arguably, Trump's gradual dismantling of multilateralism will accelerate if he is re-elected in 2020. This time, unlike 2016, Europe should be prepared. Even if a Democrat did win, the damage done by Trump would not necessarily be undone. Populism will affect US policies for years to come. Protectionism is rife in the Democratic party, not least with the left-wing of the party. Even a liberal Democratic President would be wary of undoing Trump's policies on trade and immigration and his withdrawal of military commitments abroad, for fear of mid-term elections and fuelling the next "Donald Trump". Left-leaning parties in Europe have embraced similar tactics, e.g. on immigration. The EU must rally around a liberal world agenda without waiting for the US elections. Action must cover climate and free trade, including a restructured World Trade Organization (WTO) capable of handling state-capitalist countries. Europe gradually must forge independence of the US in defence, starting with procurement (even within NATO). In matters of intelligence, the US fuss about Huawei should be countered by concerns about US government access to European secrets through its own tech giants, practices revealed by the whistle-blower Snowdon.

Relations with the UK

With Brexit, the EU loses an important fighter for multilateralism and liberalism. Or does it? The UK will soon realise how small it is as a maker of trade deals, not just with the EU but with the rest of the world. If there is one thing a UK outside the EU will continue to...