Down so long this looks like up: the erosion of the Triad's once-mighty manufacturing base is a problem that predates--and will survive--the recession.

• Position: COVER STORY - Interview

BNC: Employment in the Triad is about 95% of what it was in the year 2000. Why?

Jud: Just in the Greensboro metropolitan statistical area, we've lost about 24,000 jobs since January 2000. The main reason is the loss of manufacturing jobs. Because of that, our economy had to grow faster in other areas just to stay abreast, and we haven't done that. Our manufacturing involvement is still right at about 15%. That compares to a national rate of about 10%, so we may have more to bleed.

Could anything have cushioned the losses?

It would have helped if we had been more involved in things like health care and education. The Winston-Salem MSA has a heavy concentration in health care and education, but Greensboro and Burlington do not. It would have helped if more people had advanced degrees. Economies in places that have more people with advanced degrees grow faster. And North Carolina's high marginal tax rate has some responsibility. I just completed a study of MSAs across the country between 2000 and June 2009. It asked why some grew faster than others. That high marginal tax rate is one factor that stood out.

What can be done?

The No. 1 thing is to have a strong recovery nationally, because the Triad economy is going to follow the national economy. We are in a recovery nationally, and we are in a recovery in the Triad.

Can anything be done locally?

Not quickly. But there are things that need to be done. We need to provide the highest-quality public services at the lowest possible price and have the most efficient government that we can, because we compete with local governments all over the world. Businesses shop around. Individuals shop around. They want high-quality public services, they want roads, sewer and good schools, and they want them with low tax rates.

What else?

We can do more with special initiatives to attract people with advanced degrees. We do it, but we need to do more, with a biotech emphasis in Winston and nanotechnology in Greensboro. We should continue the push for a pharmacy school in Greensboro with the same kind of initiative that brought the law school. Basically, we need to make our region attractive, where educated people who are highly productive will want to live. The state could help by lowering the marginal tax rate.

What are the prospects for manufacturing in the Triad?

We will continue to produce goods, but we are going to do it with fewer and fewer people. Those manufacturing jobs that had been here for decades...