Engaged by the Initiative? How the Use of Citizen Initiatives Increases Voter Turnout

• Author: Mike Binder,Matt Childers
• Published date: 01 March 2012
• Date: 01 March 2012
• DOI: 10.1177/1065912910388191
• Subject Matter: Articles

Political Research Quarterly

65(1) 93 –103

© 2012 University of Utah

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DOI: 10.1177/1065912910388191

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Research on political behavior has focused on a range of

causal factors that increase political participation, voter

turnout specifically. The discipline has examined external

influences such as changes in electoral institutions designed

to negatively affect voter turnout, poll taxes (Key

1949/1984; J. M. Kousser 1974), or to increase turnout

with mail ballots (Karp and Banducci 2000; T. Kousser

and Mullin 2007) and has examined internal influences

such as genetics (Fowler and Dawes 2008; Fowler, Baker,

and Dawes 2008). Aside from the direct intended

effec ts of institutional changes, some American political

institutions have had unintended consequences for political

participation, as in the imposition of the secret ballot and

the ensuing decrease in voter turnout (Heckelman 1995).

We argue that direct democracy has had the opposite

unintended effect, as campaigns for initiatives, particu-

larly competitive races, mobilize voters and increase

turnout. Our results show that the existence of the institu-

tion of direct democracy in and of itself does not lead to

increases in voter turnout. However, our evidence suggests

that the campaigns associated with initiatives do increase

turnout.

In this article, we make three fundamental contribu-

tions to the literature on direct democracy and political

participation that clarify how ballot propositions engage

the electorate. First, we directly test competing theories

of how citizen initiatives affect turnout by measuring the

effects of the introduction and usage of the institution.

Second, we investigate the differential effects that initia-

tives have on turnout by using competitiveness as a proxy

for campaign intensity. Third, our historical data set

allows us to draw proper causal inferences about the rela-

tionship between citizen initiatives and voter turnout.

Our work shows that merely having the initiative pro-

cess in the state or simply having used it in the past does

not affect turnout in a given election. Compared to states

without the initiative process, states with initiatives on the

ballot have higher turnout in that election. As the number

of initiatives on a ballot rises during midterm elections,

voter turnout does as well, but these effects do so with

diminishing marginal returns as the number of initiatives

increases. Controlling for changes in demographics over

time (percentage foreign born, percentage nonwhite, and

urbanization), institutional changes (adoption of the secret

ballot and expanding suffrage to women), contextual elec-

toral effects (party competition and the presence of guber-

natorial and senate elections), and proposition-specific

characteristics (competitiveness), we show that citizen

initiatives (both competitive and uncompetitive—though

less so) positively affect voter turnout during midterm

elections and wield no appreciable influence on turnout in

presidential elections.

388191PRQ65110.1177/1065912910388191Ch

ilders and BinderPolitical Research Quarterly

1University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA

2Stanford University, CA, USA

Corresponding Author:

Mike Binder, Stanford University, Bill Lane Center

for the American West, Hoover Institution, 473 Via Ortega,

Room 343, Stanford, CA 94305-4225

Email: mbinder@stanford.edu

Engaged by the Initiative? How

the Use of Citizen Initiatives

Increases Voter Turnout

Matt Childers1 and Mike Binder2

Abstract

Using data from 1870 to 2008, the authors attempt to resolve competing claims about the nature of how citizen

initiatives affect turnout in the American states. They provide evidence that mobilization is the mechanism through

which direct democracy increases turnout. Contrary to previous research, they show that the adoption of the initiative

and past usage of the process do not lead to higher turnout in a given election. Citizen initiative campaigns mobilize

the electorate in current elections, and the number of competitive initiative elections has a greater effect on turnout

than uncompetitive races.

Keywords

elections, voting behavior, public opinion, political participation, state politics, policy