Employment.

• Position: Industry Outlook

ACCORDING TO STATE ECONOMIC researchers, Utah shows a negative job growth rate for the first time in 50 years. But the employment experts who gathered on an October morning shrugged off the economic chill to offer a pragmatic discussion of the current employment climate as well as their predictions about future opportunities.

Participants included Ron Ahlstrom, Utah Department of Workforce Services (DWS); Rick Bartholomew, A-Plus Benefits, Inc.; Michael Crowder, Kelly Services; Mark Holland, Intermountain Staffing; Brent Jespersen, The Diestel Group; Bob Katz, Manpower of Utah; Jim Robson, DWS; Justin Rohatinsky, Robert Half; Joel Steadman, SOS Staffing Services; Bob Stevens, Advantius; Pete Taylor, Management Recruiters of Salt Lake; and Beverly Warren, Professional Recruiters, Inc.

Special thanks to Jim Finch, deputy director at the Utah Department of Workforce Services, for moderating the discussion.

For the first time in 50 years, Utah has a negative job growth rate. Utah has lost 15,000 jobs in the last 12 months. What are the bright spots in the employment outlook for Utah?

STEADMAN: In the last 90 days, we've experienced an increase in our manufacturing business. Looking at the projections for fourth quarter, we may have a little pick-up, at least in that sector.

ROHATINSKY: Some of the industries that were hit first and hit hardest were manufacturing and technology and the advertising and training-type companies. Those are the companies that we're starting to see a slight pick-up again as far as needing extra resources. It may be that they've laid off too many people and need these people back now.

HOLLAND: We're assembly production, low-end clerical; it's been fits and starts for us. We're about three percent behind in sales from last year, so we feel good considering how challenging the markets have been, but we haven't seen anything on a broad-based scale to say that one industry is picking up. We're running from one industry to the next. We just finished a huge project in our Phoenix market, and the valve just turned off. We don't have a lot of consistency anywhere.

WARREN: One of the areas that we've seen (growth in), that has been a result probably of 9/11, has been security biotech companies, pharmaceutical companies.

KATZ: Our industry is probably one of the best barometers of how the economy is doing. Staffing or supplemental staffing is the first to go during a downturn, probably the first to return when things turn around. Our company has seen increased activity.

HOLLAND: On the PEO side, we're running the payroll and the HR for small companies. If you look at new client acquisitions, we're growing. If you look at the employees that our small businesses have employed, it's been decreasing, so clearly our client base is tightening their belt.

CROWDER: They're electing to use contingent labor instead of long-term employees who carry overhead costs and have benefits and structures that require lots of money. They're bringing on employees when they need them, and allowing them to go away when they don't, and that's good business, but it's a big change from what we've all been accustomed to.

ROBSON: The current recession in Utah is really broad-based, and there are very few industries where, as we look at the statistics, we see employment growth. The few areas that we see growth are healthcare; education, both public and private; auto sales, with what's gone on with interest rates over the last year; and some professional services.

TAYLOR: We deal with some biotech and medical device orientation, and there are still some bright spots there. There still is some growth in that area.

ROHATINSKY: Mortgage is an industry that's been hot throughout this time, because interest rates are so low.

ROBSON: If you look at banking and finance, employment is flat. Actually it's down like 800 jobs. Even with that stimulus of low interest rates and mortgage financing and the real estate issues, it still in terms of overall employment is not showing any real growth right now.

CROWDER: Education is an interesting phenomenon, especially in Utah where population growth has driven that need. The unemployment increase makes it such that educators aren't having to look at outside resources to fill their substitute teacher needs. There's a good availability of those resources in Utah. Kelly does a huge business in the provision of substitute teachers outside of Utah, but here the education system hasn't had to look for that support.

WARREN: There has been an increase in our company both on the traveling nurses and on the temporary side.

KATZ: Our company does an employment outlook survey on a quarterly basis. For the fourth quarter in Salt Lake, we are projecting 23 percent of our respondents are going to add staff, while 10 percent plan to cut back. The...