Empirical assessment of government policies and flattening of the COVID19 curve

• Published date: 01 November 2020
• Author: Noman Arshed,Muhammad Saeed Meo,Fatima Farooq
• Date: 01 November 2020
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2333

ACADEMIC PAPER

Empirical assessment of government policies and flattening of

the COVID19 curve

Noman Arshed

1,2

|Muhammad Saeed Meo

3

|Fatima Farooq

4

1

University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK

2

Department of Economics, University of

Management and Technology, Lahore,

Pakistan

3

The Superior College, Lahore, Pakistan

4

School of Economics, Bahauddin Zakariya

University, Multan, Pakistan

Correspondence

Muhammad Saeed Meo, The Superior College,

Lahore, Pakistan.

Email: saeedk8khan@gmail.com

The objective of the study is 2-fold. First, it estimates the 2019 new coronavirus

disease (COVID19) flattening curve using Panel Random Coefficient Model. This

allows each country to have its trajectory while allowing for random error effects to

transfer across countries. Second, it calculates the expected number of days to reach

the flattening point of COVID19 curve and estimate the empirical effectiveness of

government policies around the world using Poisson regression. This study avails

global COVID19 incidence data for 190 countries between January 22, 2020 and

May 11, 2020. In the absence of a vaccine or of more appropriate treatment options,

non-pharmaceutical approaches must be used to control the spread of the COVID19.

This study proposed that the contact tracing, stay at home restrictions and interna-

tional movement restrictions are most effective in controlling the spread and flatten-

ing the COIVD19 curve. At the same time, habits that hurt the immune system like

smoking have a negative effect on the flattening of the curve. The government

should integrate these policies in their lockdown plan to make it smart lockdown.

1|INTRODUCTION

Coronavirus SARS CoV-2 (COVID19) was detected on January 21st

when the first of the Chinese health workers were infected in Wuhan

(Nature, 2020; Sharif, Aloui, & Yarovaya, 2020). While it was spread-

ing in China, the developed county's health systems were of the per-

ception that like previous scourges, that is, yellow fever, cholera,

HIV/AIDS and Ebola, their systems will prevail against the COVID19.

Practically past experiences were of little use, especially for the case

of the US Health System (Chokshi & Katz, 2020). This was the story

for the developed economy; on the other hand, there are more than

63,000 cases in 53 countries of Africa. Their fragile system was not

able to cope with the needs of the population (Divala, Burke, Ndeketa,

Corbett, & MacPherson, 2020). Furthermore, the fallout in terms of

economic recession after COVID19 is predicted to overshadow the

financial crises of the late 2010s. This is because this crisis is not only

affecting the developed; rather, it is also changing developing econo-

mies. It will create not only supply short but also the demand shock

leading to an estimated fall of GDP by 6% (Wren-Lewis, 2020). One

study projected Indonesia's poverty to rise from 9.2 to 12.4%

(Suryahadi, Al Izzati, & Suryadarma, 2020). Kilbbin and

Fernando (2020) provided several scenarios in which COVID19 could

decrease GDP. According to estimates, the GDP loss could be up to

−9.9% for Japan, −8.7% for Germany, and −8.4% for the rest of the

Euro area. This shock had reduced the market capitalization by 30% at

the global level (Siddiquei & Khan, 2020).

Each country handled the COVID19 differently, leading to differ-

ent consequential forms of the pandemic. Countries like USA, Italy

and the UK delayed government intervention in the expectation of

achieving community-based immunization. In contrast, countries like

India and New Zealand locked down international borders and

restricted domestic movements. Lastly, there were countries which

used the hybrid approach of allowing businesses to continue with spe-

cial operating procedures (SOPs), social distancing and smart tracking

of the COVID19 incidence. Figure 1 shows the exponential increase

in the confirmed cases while the log series show slight flattening after

100 daysfromthefirstcaseofCOVID19intheircountry.Several

studies have proposed the theory to handle the COVID19. One of the

most popular is the flattening of the COIVD19 incidence curve.

Figure 2 shows the quadratic fit of log COVID19 incidence against

the count of days since the first case was reported. It is observed here

that there is a flattening pattern emerging globally.

Received: 22 June 2020Revised: 23 July 2020Accepted: 26 July 2020

DOI: 10.1002/pa.2333

J Public Affairs. 2020;20:e2333.wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/pa© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd1of8

https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2333