Egypt: what now? Egyptians have ousted their authoritarian President. But what kind of government will replace him - and what will it mean for the U.S.?

• Author: Smith, Patricia
• Position: INTERNATIONAL

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Eighteen days of protests in the streets of Cairo and across Egypt achieved what many had thought impossible: They forced the resignation of Hosni Mubarak, the authoritarian President who had ruled the nation for 30 years.

"We can breathe fresh air, we can feel our freedom," says Gamal Heshamt, a former independent member of the Egyptian Parliament. "After 30 years of absence from the world, Egypt is back."

There's no doubt that Mubarak's ouster is hugely significant--a changing of the guard in the most-populous country in the Middle East and a key U.S. ally. The question is, what comes next?

The answer to that question has broad implications for the entire region, for U.S. policy in the Middle East, and for Israel and the future of the stalled peace process.

The upheaval in Egypt was sparked by the example of Tunisia, where protests ousted that nation's longtime dictator in January. Since Mubarak was forced to step down on Feb. 11, protests have erupted across the region--including in Bahrain, Algeria, Iran, Libya, and Yemen--all ruled by authoritarian regimes or outright dictators (see map).

Mubarak handed power to the Egyptian military when he resigned. As of mid-February, it was unclear whether the military would act to carry out the democratic reforms protesters sought or leave power in the hands of the generals.

"I worry that senior generals may want ... a Mubarak-style government without Mubarak" says Times columnist Nicholas Kristof. "In essence, the regime may have decided that Mubarak had become a liability and thrown him overboard--without any intention of instituting the kind of broad, meaningful democracy that the public wants."

Another Iran?

Others--particularly Israel, which has had a peace treaty with Egypt for three decades, and Saudi Arabia, another key U.S. ally--worry about radical Islamists seizing power and hijacking the revolution. That's what happened with the Iranian Revolution in 1979, in which hardline Islamic clerics took over and turned the country into an anti-Western, Islamic theocracy.

That helps to explain why President Obama walked a careful line during the protests in Egypt, trying not to completely abandon a U.S. ally, while encouraging Mubarak to listen to the protesters' demands and eventually step aside.

"What happened in Iran has made the U.S. really gun-shy about popular change in the region, but Egypt is in a very different place than Iran was 30 years ago," says Thomas...