Effects will continue for a century, even if emissions are curbed now.

• Position: Global Warming - Brief Article

Although significant uncertainty remains regarding the amount et global warming that will occur over the next century or two, scientists agree that the trend will continue for the next 100 years even if fossil fuel consumption is dramatically reduced. They predict significant increases in global temperature and rises in sea level in this century, with related changes in weather patterns expected to affect agricultural production.

Global warming is likely to have the greatest human impact in poor countries unable to respond adequately to the changes, warns Robert Dickinson of the Georgia Institute of Technology's School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta. "Current climate models can indicate the general nature of climate change for the next 100 to 200 years. But the effects of carbon dioxide (C[O.sub.2]) that have been released into the atmosphere from the burning fossil fuels last for at least 100 years. That means that any reductions in C[O.sub.2] that are expected to be possible over this period will not result in a cleaner atmosphere and less global warming than we see today for at least a century."

Climate models indicate temperature increases of three to more than 10 degrees Fahrenheit this century and a sea level rise of six inches to nearly three feet. The burning of fossil fuels emits greenhouse gases, such as C[O.sub.2], into the atmosphere. These gases contribute to global warming, and the temperature rise expands the oceans and causes ice sheets to melt, in turn raising the sea level.

Despite differences in climate model projections and the limitations of the models themselves, scientists agree that significant consequences from global warming will occur in this century, Dickinson notes. "Given enough time, there may be as many winners as losers. However, many of the losers will be very unhappy, such as people who live on islands that will be put under...