Ecuador: de mal ... en mal.
Position | Incertidumbre pol |
Los inversionistas ecuatoria nos y extranjeros esperan un año de incertidumbre e inestabilidad económica debido al cambio de gobierno y a la falta de claridad en la visión económica del nuevo presidente. La inflación, que bajó en los últimos tres años, se espera que suba. El crecimiento económico probablemente se reduzca. Lo que es más, es poco probable que uno de los principales problemas que estimularon el cambio (los intentos de gobiernos anteriores por reducir el déficit fiscal) se resuelva pronto.
El nuevo presidente, el abogado Fabián Alarcón, de 49 años, ha detenido los planes del gobierno anterior de privatizar varias entidades y los planes de igualar la moneda nacional, el sucre, al dólar. El proyecto, elaborado por Domingo Cavallo, ex ministro de Economía argentino, habría copiado la ley de convertibilidad del peso en Argentina. La mayoría de los analistas extranjeros coinciden en que la nueva ley de convertibilidad de Ecuador habría reducido la tasa de inflación del país, que llegó al 23% el año pasado. El Banco Mundial había calculado un índice del 18% para este año, pero se piensa que la incertidumbre hará subir la tasa.
Abdalá Bucaram, elegido presidente el año pasado, perdió el cargo en un golpe parlamentario encabezado por Alarcón, entonces presidente del Congreso. El parlamento asignó a Alarcón un período de gobierno hasta agosto de 1998. Los líderes empresariales temen que Alarcón tratará de gobernar sobre la base de la mayor concordia posible con los sindicatos y los partidos de oposición que organizaron protestas multitudinarias contra Bucaram y que...
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