Economic outlook.

• Author: Maley, Frank
• Position: Matthias Ruth - Interview

Always wanted waterfront property but couldn't afford it? If you buy land in the right place, rising sea level will bring the beach to you. Of course, that scenario will be a serious downer for current coastal residents. It's just one of the economic impacts climate change will have on North Carolina and other states, according to a study by the Center for Integrative Environmental Research at the University of Maryland. Matthias Ruth, a professor of public policy, is the center's director.

Why is the University of Maryland studying North Carolina?

We did this on the national level and recognized that pretty much every state and economic sector is affected. We picked more than a dozen states where there's a lot of reason for concern, particularly along the coastline. What we wanted to do is reach out with that information to those states to provide a more sound basis for making policy decisions.

How do you define climate change?

It's not just changes in temperatures and rainfall. It also means changes in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. There always has been and always will be natural variation and fluctuation. But what we have seen since the industrial revolution is unambiguously related to the use of fossil fuels and emission of greenhouse gases, which trap heat. The heat affects the water cycle. That creates an impact on ecosystems. It means movement of species. It means melting of glaciers.

How has it affected North Carolina?

Over the last 100 years, the temperature increases were, on average, between four and six degrees. We anticipate that to continue and maybe accelerate if we don't do something about it. Extreme weather events became more frequent and severe. And we anticipate that to continue. Sea levels are expected to rise three to four feet by the end of this century.

Which would put much of our current coast under water.

That's right. Therefore, the buffers against heavy storm surges would be inundated and their effectiveness in preventing inland flooding during severe weather would be severely reduced.

You expect hurricanes to become more frequent and intense.

That will drive up property damage. It will drive up the cost of all goods and services, because businesses will most likely have shortfalls of production, problems with the delivery of their finished goods to the market if transportation networks get disrupted or problems getting inputs into the production process. So the cost of doing business and...