Economic Outlook 2018: Running theme: Alaska will recover but not without stable fiscal plan.

• Position: ECONOMY

As we do each year, Alaska Business asked industry leaders and public officials to provide us with insight into what they expect to see for the state's economy in the coming year. A running theme throughout each response is that Alaska is on the road to recovery, but without a comprehensive fiscal plan that promotes stability and economic growth that recovery will remain elusive. As a state we must create a stable, competitive fiscal environment to attract investment dollars and create job opportunities. Although many experts expect Alaska's job count to fall again in 2018, job losses are expected to decline thanks in part to continued growth in the healthcare and tourism industries. Minimal job losses are expected for other industries such as retail and professional services. In fact, there are many signs the worst of the recent recession may now be behind us, as oil prices ticked upwards in 2017 and oil production increased for the second consecutive year. There is more reason to be optimistic as the housing market has proven resilient and growth in military activity and the fishing industry act as stabilizing forces, helping to diversify the economy; something most industry leaders agree must happen for Alaska to emerge from its current low-price oil environment. And while low interest rates and a strong US economy positively impacted Alaska in 2017, continued lack of agreement on a fiscal plan has eroded private sector confidence and investment, hitting some industries, such as vertical construction, hard. But enough from us. Here Alaska's public sector and private industry leaders offer expert opinions on what we can expect to see in the coming year.

AEDC's outlook for the Anchorage economy in 2018 is for a moderation of the current recession. Since the recession began in 2016, the Anchorage economy will have lost more than 5,000 jobs, just below 4 percent. In 2018 those job losses will likely be less than 1,000. Oil prices have seen modest recovery and industry investments are starting to increase, benefiting Anchorage jobs and spending as a result. Air cargo and the visitor industry will continue to see growth, as will the healthcare sector. Other service sector industries such as retail, professional services, and the like will see minimal job losses. With the chance that the legislature will resolve the fiscal crisis and oil prices remaining at or near current levels, there could a better outcome in 2018 than our current predictions suggest.

--Bill Popp

President and CEO Anchorage Economic Development Corporation

The Alaska economy is still...