The Ebb and Flow of State Tax Changes Over a Decade.

• Position: Statistical Data Included

It's smooth sailing for government when economic times are as good as they have been for the past few years. Earlier, though, rough waters stirred up by the 1990 recession generated state tax hikes, as income and sales tax revenues faltered and welfare needs increased. By 1994 the storm had passed. Then successive waves of small tax cuts swept the country, beginning in 1995.

And there's a story behind every large change. New Jersey's 21.2 percent increase for FY '91 resulted from the combination of budget problems and a state Supreme Court decision declaring the state's education finance system unconstitutional. Michigan's 23 percent state tax hike in FY 1995 was offset by a big drop in local property taxes when the state shifted school funding toward sales and income taxes.

New Hampshire is likely to show a significant tax boost for FY 2000 as it responds to legal demands to alter its school funding method. Huge FY 2000 tax cuts in Colorado and Minnesota reflect both significant rebates and permanent reductions.

Overall, though, the tax change story is mostly one of little adjustments on the margins. The big changes happen when the economy surprises us.

STATE TAX CHANGES, FY 1990 - FY 2000 AS A PERCENTAGE OF PREVIOUS YEAR'S TAX COLLECTIONS STATE FY90 FY91 FY92 FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 Alabama +0.9% +4.5% +3.1% -3.6% -0.1% Alaska +19.3% +0.1 +0.8 +0.1% +1.6% Arizona +2.4 +5.3 +0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -2.4 -3.1 -3.1 -2.2 Arkansas +0.4 +11.7 +2.8 -0.8 +0.8 California +1.6 +14.7 +1.9 -0.5 -0.2 -0.3 Colorado +2.6 +1.8 -0.4 -0.4 -2.9 Connecticut +18.3 +0.2 +20.2 +0.7 -0.1 +4.5 +1.0 -3.9 -1.6 Delaware +1.8 +6.8 -0.2 +0.7 -0.4 -1.4 -0.9 -0.1 Florida +0.7 +8.7 +0.4 +2.9 +0.1 -0.0 +0.0 -0.2 -0.6 Georgia +11.9 -0.4 -0.0 -1.2 -2.0 -1.5 Hawaii -8.5 -3.1 -0.0 +1.4 +0.1 +2.3 +0.0 Idaho -0.3 +1.1 +0.2 +0.2 +0.5 +1.7 Illinois +9.8 +5.7 +2.5 -2.1 -0.8 -0.1 +0.7 Indiana -1.5 +0.7 +0.1 -3.6 -0.6 Iowa -0.2 -0.2 +0.4 +7.5 +0.6 -0.2 -0.7 0.6 -3.0 Kansas +0.4 +0.0 +12.6 -0.4 -1.1 -0.2 -2.9 Kentucky +14.5 +0.5 +0.6 -0.6 -0.8 -0.2 Louisiana -1.7 +2.7 +7.7 +10.8 +1.6 +0.4 -0.1 -2.4 Maine -0.7 +0.4 +17.0 -6.0 +0.1 +0.2 -0.6 +5.8 Maryland -0.6 +1.4 +6.1 +0.0 -0.4 -0.1 -0.0 -0.5 Massachusetts +5.8 +12.8 -2.3 -2.2 +1.1 -0.2 -0.0 -1.8 -1.5 Michigan +0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.8 +23.0 -2.0 -0.1 +0.8 Minnesota -0.0 +4.2 +2.0 +1.0 +0.3 +0.1 -0.0 -4.7 Mississippi +6.7 -0.4 +0.1 +0.2 -0.1 Missouri +2.2 +3.1 +2.7 +2.5 +0.6 +1.1 -2.2 Montana +2.7 -0.5 +5.1 +9.4 -3.1 -4.3 Nebraska +1.3 +13.1...