Easing concealed firearms laws: effects on homicide in three states.

• Author: McDowall, David
• Position: Guns and Violence Symposium

1. INTRODUCTION

   Restrictions on carrying concealed weapons are among the most common gun control policies.(1) These statutes limit who may have a deadly weapon--usually a handgun--hidden on their person when outside the home. By reducing access to guns in public, concealed weapons laws seek to make firearms less available for violence.(2) Details of concealed weapons laws vary greatly among localities, but most approaches fall into two categories. One of these is a discretionary system, sometimes called "may issue" licensing.(3) Under this policy, legal authorities grant licenses only to those citizens who can establish a compelling need for carrying a gun.

   The other approach is a non-discretionary, or "shall issue," system.(4) Here the authorities must provide a license to any applicant who meets specified criteria. Because legal officials are often unwilling to allow concealed weapons, adopting a shall issue policy usually increases the number of persons with permits to carry guns.(5) In 1985, the National Rifle Association announced that it would lobby for shall issue laws.(6) Several states, including Florida, Mississippi, and Oregon, have since changed from may issue to shall issue systems. Advocates of shall issue laws argue that such laws will both prevent crime and reduce homicides.(7)

   This Article examines the frequency of homicides in the large urban areas of Florida, Mississippi, and Oregon, before and after their shall issue laws began. The analysis provides no support for the idea that the laws reduced homicides; instead, it finds evidence of an increase in firearm murders.

2. THE LAWS

   On October 1, 1987, Florida adopted a shall issue law that greatly expanded eligibility to carry a concealed weapon.(8) The new statute required the state to grant a concealed weapon license to any qualified adult who had taken a firearms safety course. Those persons with a history of drug or alcohol abuse, a felony conviction, mental illness, physical inability, or who were not Florida residents were disqualified from obtaining a license.

   Prior to the passage of the Florida shall issue law, county officials set their own standards for concealed carrying. Throughout the state, about 17,000 persons held permits, including 1,300 in Dade county (Miami) and 25 in Hillsborough county (Tampa).(9) The number of licenses rose steadily after the passage of the new law, reaching 141,000 in September 1994.(10)

   Mississippi adopted a shall issue law on July 1, 1990.(11) The Mississippi law was similar to the Florida law, except that it did not require firearms safety training. Mississippi's earlier law was highly restrictive, generally allowing only security guards to have concealed weapons.(12) In contrast, the new law is more lenient; by November 1992, the state had issued 5,136 new licenses.(13)

   Oregon adopted a shall issue law on January 1, 1990, in a compromise between supporters and opponents of stricter gun control measures.(14) Oregon's new law required county sheriffs to provide a concealed handgun license to any qualified adult who had taken a firearms safety course. People who could not obtain a license included: those with outstanding arrest warrants, those on pretrial release, those with a history of mental illness, or those with a felony or recent misdemeanor conviction.

   In addition to easing laws on concealed carrying, Oregon's new law also tightened standards for buying a gun. While the old law barred convicted felons from owning handguns, the new law prohibited convicted felons from owning any type of firearm. Oregon's new law also lengthened the waiting period for handgun purchases and required more detailed background checks. It further prohibited most persons ineligible for a concealed handgun license from obtaining any firearm.

   Before the passage of the new law in 1991, Oregon's sheriffs issued concealed handgun licenses at their discretion. In 1989, there were fewer than 500 licensed carriers in Clackamas, Multnomah, and Washington counties, the core of the Portland metropolitan area.(15) By October 1993, the number of licenses in these counties grew to 16,000.(16)

3. POSSIBLY EFFECTS OF SHALL ISSUE LICENSING ON CRIME

   While the shall issue policies clearly increased the number of persons licensed to carry concealed weapons in Florida, Mississippi, and Oregon, their effects on crime are less obvious. There are grounds to believe that crime might increase, decrease, or remain the same after a shall issue law is passed.

   Shall issue licensing might reduce crime by deterring criminal offenders. Criminals generally wish to avoid victims who may be carrying guns.(17) Knowledge that many citizens have concealed weapons could discourage attempts at crime, especially crimes against strangers and crimes in public areas.

   On the other hand, shall issue licensing also might raise levels of criminal violence. This is so because shall issue laws increase the number of persons with easy access to guns. ZimRing and Cook argue that assaults are often impulsive acts involving the most readily available weapons.(18) As guns are especially deadly weapons, more fireaRM carriers might result in more homicides.

   Advocates of shall issue licensing cite figures showing that few legal carriers misuse their guns.(19) Yet greater tolerance for legal carrying may increase levels of illegal carrying as well. For example, criminals have more reason to carry firearms--and to use them--when their victims might be armed.(20) Further, if permission to carry a concealed weapon is easy to obtain, citizens and law enforcement officials may be less apt to view illegal carrying as a serious offense. Still, shall issue licensing may be irrelevant to crime. Even in areas with shall issue policies, only a small fraction of adults have licenses to carry guns. Many citizens keep guns in their homes, and police officers often carry guns when off-duty and in plain clothes. The increase in available firearms due to shall issue licensing may be of little consequence.

4. EXISTING EVIDENCE ON THE EFFECTS OF SHALL ISSUE LICENSING

   Most empirical discussions of shall issue licensing compare homicides in Florida before and after the beginning of its law. Homicide is the most accurately recorded crime, reducing the influence of measurement error on the comparison. Florida adopted its law earlier than did the other states, providing more time to study the effects.

   All existing comparisons of Florida homicide rates before and after the passage of the Florida shall issue law found that Florida homicides decreased after the shall issue law. The National Rifle Association, for example, notes that Florida's homicide rate fell by 21% when comparing 1987 with 1992.(21)

   Although the Florida experience appears to support a deterrent effect, the existing comparisons suffer from several weaknesses. First, these studies all use Uniform...