How Dukakis can still be president; and you thought Dan Quayle was next in line.

• Author: Bates, Stephen
• Position: Michael S. Dukakis

And you thought Dan Quayle was next in line

It might seem that all is lost for the Dukakis campaign. But there's still a way Sasso & Co. could see their man in the White House.

Assume, as CNN'sBernard Shaw said in the final presidential debate, that George Bush dies before inauguration day. Who would take the oath of office on January 20? Probably Dan Quayle, as Shaw said, but not necessarily. Maybe Bob Dole or another Republican. Conceivably even the Duke. The answer lies in the crevices of the Constitution.

At first reading, a clause of the 20th Amendment seems to be the last word"If, at the time fixed for the beginning of the term of the president, the president-elect shall have died, the vice president-elect shall become president."

But look again. The amendment cannot apply until there's a president-elect-and that's the catch. Shaw spoke of Bush as becoming "president-elect" as soon as the polis closed on November 8. Constitutionally he jumped the gun by more than a month. Until December 19, when members of the electoral college meet in the capitols of their states to cast separate ballots for president and vice president, Bush is just a candidate. And even after that he may still be just a candidate. Some say he doesn't become the official president-elect until January 6, when Congress counts the electoral college ballots.

Consequently, much depends on when Bush dies. If he goes before December 19, the 20th Amendment would not apply. Instead, the Republican National Committee could select a new nominee, as its rules provide. (The Democrats have similar provisions.) Republican electors' pledges would shift from Bush to the new nominee, perhaps primary runner-up Bob Dole. Or the RNC could let things be, assuming that GOP electors would vote for the late Bush and under the 20th Amendment Quayle would become president-elect.

But let's suppose the electors are less than delighted by the idea of Dan Quayle as Commander in Chief. Although electors are pledged to abide by the popular vote in the state, only a handful of states provide criminal penalties for violators. Just eight electors out of more than 16,000 have ever broken their pledges. But the prospect of Quayle in the Oval Office might make party faithful think hard before casting their ballot.

If Bush dies, it's not hard to picture electors-Republicans and Democrats alike-conferring privately before December 19 to settle on a new candidate. They would not be completely unconstrained...