Pacific dominance: China's defense build-up merits closer attention from Navy, say analysts.

• Author: Jean, Grace
• Position: UPFRONT

China has been beefing up its military might, and the rapid growth of its navy, in particular, is creating disagreements in the Defense Department over whether such a build-up ought to be perceived as a threat to U.S. interests in the Pacific.

Analysts who have been monitoring Chinas emerging maritime clout say the U.S. Navy needs to incorporate those developments into its immediate and future plans.

Chinas military appears focused on preparing for Taiwan Strait contingencies in the near future as it develops the capacity to rapidly degrade Taiwanese military resistance and at the same time deter, delay or deny potential third party intervention, said David Helvey, a China expert in the office of the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs. He spoke at a conference sponsored by the United States Naval Institute.

"The Taiwan situation, as it stands, is unfortunately causing the U.S. and China to plan for war against each other," said Lyle Goldstein, associate professor of strategic studies at the U.S. Naval War College. It is a problem that could erupt at any time, he warned.

"Beijing has tremendous advantages here. They have advantage of focus. They're not spread all over the world focusing on missions here and missions there," he said.

Goldstein pointed out that China is building four classes of submarines simultaneously.

"That's quite extraordinary," he told the conference.

Last year, news agencies reported that China had launched 13 submarines between 2002 and 2004. That number excludes the purchase of Kilo class diesel submarines the nation is acquiring from Russia, Goldstein added.

"I think it does make a statement of their focus and willingness to invest serious resources in developing undersea warfare capacity," said Helvey.

Goldstein also recently concluded a study that surveyed more than 1,000 strategic and tactical documents on Chinas mine warfare program, which he called "extremely dynamic" and "frightening."

"This is an issue that the U.S. Navy has to grapple with," he told National Defense.

American naval planners should get used to keeping an eye on the China-Taiwan situation, especially with the upcoming Taiwanese presidential election in 2008 because it will affect how the U.S. Navy charts its future, he added.

The Navy's 30-year shipbuilding plan, which calls for 313 ships, presumably includes China contingencies, said Ronald O'Rourke, naval analyst at the Congressional Research Office. But there...