El sueño del dólar.
Author | Zellner, Mike |
Position | Pol |
A principios de marzo, la crema y nata de las finanzas y los gobiernos latinoamericanos se dieron cita en la reunión anual del BID en Francia. París en primavera no parece un lugar adecuado para hablar de las perspectivas de América Latina, pero la cuna del impresionismo sí es el sitio apropiado para comentar sobre la idea descaminada de sustituir las monedas locales con el dólar.
El realismo encarnado en el Plan Real de Brasil está muerto. El intento de recrear una realidad estable mediante un régimen monetario vigoroso y controlado fracasó el 12 de enero, en el último episodio de la caída de los mercados emergentes. Las únicas economías que quedan en pie son Europa y Estados Unidos, lo que hace pensar que adoptar el recién lanzado euro o el dólar podría dar cierta estabilidad a las economías en vías de desarrollo. Esa noción es errónea.
Los neoimpresionistas, con el presidente Carlos Menem a la cabeza, creen que el dólar obligaría a Latinoamérica a adoptar una disciplina fiscal porque no pueden imprimir esa moneda. Todo el dinero que se gastase tendría que salir de los contribuyentes o recaudarse en los mercados a tasas de interés basadas en la percepción de la prudencia gubernamental. El resultado: una moneda en la que los latinoamericanos puedan confiar.
"En Dios confiamos" es el lema estampado en los billetes norteamericanos, no "En la Reserva Federal confiamos". El concepto de ceder la autoridad monetaria refleja hasta qué punto se ha replegado el fervor nacionalista en Latinoamérica, pero entregar el poder al presidente de la Reserva Federal, Alan Greenspan, no es la solución. Un problema obvio es que los políticos estadounidenses no salen electos por prestar atención a las cuestiones económicas internacionales y otro es que los intereses políticos de Estados Unidos podrían devastar las economías de la región. Hace sólo diez años, el gobierno de George Bush cortó la entrada de dólares en Panamá cuando el...
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