Does the one‐child generation want more than one child at their fertility age?

• Published date: 01 April 2022
• Author: Penggang Wang,Heying Jenny Zhan,Jing Liu,Patricia M. Barrett
• Date: 01 April 2022
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/fare.12620

RESEARCH

Does the one-child generation want more than one

child at their fertility age?

Penggang Wang

1

|Heying Jenny Zhan

2

|Jing Liu

3

|

Patricia M. Barrett

2

1

Institute of Population, School of Economics,

Hebei University, Hebei, China

2

Department of Sociology, Georgia State

University, Atlanta, GA, USA

3

Department of Labor and Social Security,

School of Public Administration, Zhejiang

University of Finance and Economics,

Zhejiang, China

Correspondence

Heying Jenny Zhan, Department of Sociology,

Georgia State University, 38 Peach Tree

Center Avenue, Atlanta, GA 30302-5020,

USA; or Penggang Wang, Institute of

Population, School of Economics, Hebei

University, 2666 Qiyi East Road, Baoding,

Hebei, China 071002.

Emails: hzhan@gsu.edu or wpg2008@126.com

Abstract

Objective: This study aims to understand intentions to

have more children among reproductive-age Chinese

women who currently have had one child with the goal of

understanding the factors influencing Chinese women’s

fertility intention 2 years after implementation of the uni-

versal two-child policy.

Background: On January 1, 2016, the national one-child

policy formally ended in China. Do Chinese women desire

to have more than one child? This study brings feminist

insight into the Chinese contexts of economic development

and patrilocal cultural tradition.

Method: This study used nationally representative data

(n=65,355) from the 2017 China Fertility Survey. Logis-

tic regression was used to explore the determinants of the

intention of having more children.

Results: Findings reveal that women from one-child fami-

lies are least likely to want additional children. Women’s

higher income is negatively related to the desire to have

more children. Rural residence and having a female first-

born child are correlated with a greater likelihood of desir-

ing additional children.

Implications: Authoritative social policies may have chan-

ged fertility behaviors for a generation of Chinese families,

but removing restrictive fertility policies may not bring

about higher fertility rates. New family size norms and

family-friendly social policies may be needed to facilitate

higher fertility rates in China.

KEYWORDS

China, one-child policy, two-child intention

Received: 5 October 2020Revised: 13 July 2021Accepted: 9 August 2021

DOI: 10.1111/fare.12620

© 2021 National Council on Family Relations.

494 Family Relations. 2022;71:494–512.wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/fare

On December 31, 2015, the Chinese government announced the new universal two-child policy,

effective immediately.

i

This announcement officially ended the 36-year one-child policy, which

started in 1979. One of the unintended consequences of the one-child policy is the increasing

proportions of the elderly population in China. To sustain a stable workforce and the tradi-

tional Chinese cultural practice of filial responsibility implementing a two-child policy is a

national agenda that concerns not just newlywed couples but also policymakers in China. One

would imagine, after decades of the fertility control forcing couples to have only one child,

today’s young couples, especially those who were only children themselves as a consequence of

the one-child policy, would be eager to have a second child. In this article, we ask: What factors

influence young Chinese couples’decisions or intentions to have a second child?

BACKGROUND

Feminist and family studies researchers have long argued that women’s liberation is negatively

associated with the number of children women choose to have (Ahn, 1994; Brewster &

Rindfuss, 2000; Jain, 1981; R

obert & Bukodi, 2005). Specifically, women’s higher education

levels and labor force participation raise their status at home and reduce the likelihood of hav-

ing multiple children (Ahn, 1994; Brewster & Rindfuss, 2000; Cavalli, 2010; Mills et al., 2008;

Testa, 2014; Willekens, 1991; Xu et al., 2016). In developed societies, women tend to receive

similar levels of education as men, and large numbers of women are employed in the public

labor force. As a result, total fertility rates, defined as the number of children per woman, are

very low in 2019 in societies such as Japan (1.4), Sweden (1.9), Germany (1.5), the

United Kingdom (1.9), and the United States (1.9; U.S. Bureau of Census, 2019). In societies

where women are less represented in the public labor force but family-owned businesses or

farms or who care for home and children, fertility rates tend to be high, such as in Nigeria (4.8),

Angola (6.0), Ethiopia (4.8), and Somalia (5.6) in Africa (U.S. Bureau of Census, 2019).

In 2019, China’s total fertility rate was 1.6, lower than rates in the United States,

United Kingdom, and Sweden, and is below replacement level. China’s fertility rate has

remained consistently low since 2000; this has been partially attributed to the nation’s rapid

economic development, but more important, to the longstanding one-child policy. The one-

child policy influenced billions of people from its inception in 1979, significantly changing fertil-

ity behaviors (Cai, 2010; Johnson, 1994; Li, 1995a; McElroy & Yang, 2000; Short &

Fengying, 1998). Under this policy, women were allowed to have only one child; having more

than one child resulted in severe penalties (Li, 1995; Short & Fengying, 1998). Such restrictions

were more powerful and rigid in urban settings, and the consequences could be as severe as per-

manent ineligibility for promotions among employees in state-owned sectors. In addition, the

illegitimate child might never be able to go to school due to a lack of legitimate birth registra-

tion. This policy was less forcefully reinforced in rural and remote areas where ethnic minorities

live (Guo & Zhang, 2003).

Consequently, the policy may have gradually changed the nation’s fertility norm, with hav-

ing more than one child becoming a deviant behavior among the general public and a privilege

for the ethnic minority population (Yang, 2017). Now that the two-child universal policy is in

effect, what factors might influence young Chinese couples’decisions or intensions for having

an additional child? Using a national survey data, this article considers three theoretical argu-

ments; thus, we raise three fundamental research questions: (a) Is it the policy effect? That is, is

the two-child policy effectively influencing the intentions of one-child generation adults to have

more children? (b) Does women’s liberation influence young women’s intention to have no

more children? (c) Is it the patriarchal family tradition that pressures women to have more chil-

dren? To understand these questions, a review of relevant literature provides important context

and background on Chinese experiences that will inform our analyses.

TWO-CHILD INTENTION495