Does Democracy Enhance or Reduce Lethal Violence? Examining the Role of the Rule of Law

• Author: Christopher Mullins,Alexander Testa,Joseph K. Young
• Published date: 01 August 2017
• Date: 01 August 2017
• DOI: 10.1177/1088767917698181
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/1088767917698181

Homicide Studies

2017, Vol. 21(3) 219 –239

© 2017 SAGE Publications

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DOI: 10.1177/1088767917698181

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Article

Does Democracy Enhance

or Reduce Lethal Violence?

Examining the Role of the

Rule of Law

Alexander Testa1, Joseph K. Young2,

and Christopher Mullins3

Abstract

This study builds on prior cross-national criminological literature by using disaggregated

measures of democracy, notably rule of law, to examine the influence key components

of democracy have on homicide rates. To assess this relationship, the current study

uses two measures of rule of law: (a) a measurement of an independent judiciary; (b)

a measurement of “Law and Order Tradition” from the International Country Risk

Guide (ICRG). Findings indicate that the measures of rule of law have a significant

negative effect on homicide rates.

Keywords

democracy, comparative criminology, international homicide trends, rule of law,

transitional democracy, homicide

Introduction

Following the third wave of democratization in the last quarter of the 20th century

(Huntington, 1993), social science researchers have devoted increasing attention to the

association between democracy and a wide range of social and political phenomena.

Often evidence suggests democracy decreases undesirable social outcomes (e.g.,

1University of Maryland, College Park, USA

2American University, Washington, DC, USA

3Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, USA

Corresponding Author:

Alexander Testa, University of Maryland, 2220 Samuel J. LeFrak Hall, 7251 Preinkert Drive, College Park,

MD 20742, USA.

Email: atesta@umd.edu

698181HSXXXX10.1177/1088767917698181Homicide StudiesTesta et al.

research-article2017

220 Homicide Studies 21(3)

infant mortality; see Gerring, Thacker, & Alfaro, 2012) or increases prosocial out-

comes (e.g., economic development; see Doucouliagos & Ulubaşoğlu, 2008). Yet,

research on the relationship between democratization and homicide generally displays

a weak and inconsistent association, even though extant sociological theory often pre-

dicts a negative association between democratization within a country and levels of

crime and violence (see LaFree & Tseloni, 2006).

One possible explanation of the weak relationship between democracy and lethal

violence is that measures used in prior research fail to capture the core components of

democracy that influence violence. Indeed, Nivette (2011) recently noted that although

“democracy indices proved rather weak influences on homicide overall, this may be

attributable to the lack of empirical and theoretical development of specific mecha-

nisms involved” (p. 123). Likewise, Stamatel (2008) contends that theorizing about

specific components of democracy and political order that may influence criminal

activity is needed to advance research. Following these recommendations, the current

study focuses on a key subcomponent of democracy by examining on the impact of the

“rule of law” on violent behavior.

Rule of law is considered a major subcomponent in operationalization of democ-

racy in which “all actions of citizens, the state, and government are equally subject to

legal scrutiny, independent of position, status, and power” (Karstedt & LaFree, 2006,

pp. 11-12). In the current study, we contend that rule of law is a key construct of

democracy that can impact violence of a society, as it serves as a state’s ability to

embody and enforce law in a manner citizens perceive as just, and therefore should

reduce violence by diminishing antisocial views and desires of revenge among citi-

zens, as well as through the transfer of power to resolve conflicts from citizens to the

state (Black, 1983; Herrman, Thöni, & Gächter, 2008).

To assess this relationship, we present two measures of rule of law—(a) a measure-

ment of an independent judiciary from the Political Constraint Index (POLCON) data

set (see Henisz, 2002); (b) a measurement of “Law and Order Tradition” from the

International Country Risk Guide (ICRG)—and use country-level homicide rates from

the World Health Organization (WHO) as a measure of homicide. Although our main

focus is on explaining the association between rule of law and homicide rates, we aim

to create a more complete test of rule of law, as well as competing theoretical perspec-

tives by including two other measures of violence as alternative outcomes: country-

level suicide rates and country-level fatalities from terrorist attacks. In the following

sections, we outline competing theoretical perspectives regarding the relationship of

democratization and lethal violence. We then describe our sample, measures, and

empirical strategy and conclude with a discussion of the implication of our findings

for future research.

Conceptual Framework

Prior cross-national criminological research typically draws upon two theoretical per-

spectives in explaining the relationship between democracy and violence: (a)

Durkheim’s modernization perspective and (b) Elias’s civilizing process. In this