Does Compulsory Voting Affect How Voters Choose? A Test Using a Combined Conjoint and Regression Discontinuity Analysis

• Author: Shane P. Singh
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/00104140211066219
• Published date: 01 October 2022
• Date: 01 October 2022
• Subject Matter: Articles

Article

Comparative Political Studies

2022, Vol. 55(12) 2119–2143

© The Author(s) 2022

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DOI: 10.1177/00104140211066219

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Does Compulsory

Voting Affect How

Voters Choose? A Test

Using a Combined

Conjoint and Regression

Discontinuity Analysis

Shane P. Singh

1



Abstract

Authors writing since the late 1800s have argued that the requirement to vote

can transform citizens, especially by inducing political sophistication. This

implies the criteria that compelled voters use to choose between candidates

will differ from those who are not obligated to turn out. To test this, I

amalgamate a conjoint experiment with a regression discontinuity design,

exploiting age-based cutoffs in the application of compulsory voting. This

allows me to causally identify the impact of compulsory voting on the at-

tributes individuals take into account when choosing between candidates.

While I recover compulsory voting’s upward impact on turnout, I f‌ind no

evidence that compelled and voluntary voters differ in how they select

candidates.

Keywords

elections, public opinion and voting behavior, representation and electoral

systems, compulsory voting

1

Department of International Affairs, School of Public and International Affairs, University of

Georgia, Athens, GA, USA

Corresponding Author:

Shane P. Singh, Department of International Affairs, School of Public and International Affairs,

University of Georgia, 305 Candler Hall, Athens, GA 30602, USA.

Email: singh@uga.edu

“If fewer and fewer people turn out, the vote will end up becoming an

elitist instrument. …For effective representation, compulsory voting is

required.”

–Senator Rabindranath Quinteros of Chile, advocating for the re-

introduction of compulsory voting, September 2021

1

Introduction

Voting is compulsory in about 25 countries, including Australia, Belgium,

Singapore, and most Latin American democracies. Bulgaria, Samoa, and two

Indian states (for local elections) have adopted compulsory voting within the

past 10 years, while Cyprus, Fiji, and Flanders (for municipal and provincial

elections) have abolished it (Singh, 2021a, chp. 1). In Chile, where com-

pulsory voting was abrogated a decade ago, legislation restoring the re-

quirement to vote is working its way through the National Congress, and

mandatory voting may also be written into a new constitution to be drafted

over the coming months. In the United States, bills making voting compulsory

have recently been introduced in California, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and

New York.

As ref‌lected by the quote that opens this article, advocates of compulsory

voting often suggest that it enhances the representation of minorities and lower

classes, decreasing pro-elite bias in policy outcomes. Supporters of com-

pulsory voting also praise its ability to level out socioeconomic disparities in

the voting population (see especially Lijphart, 1997), a feature for which there

is empirical evidence (Dassonneville et al., 2017;Jaitman, 2013;Singh, 2015;

but see Cepaluni & Hidalgo, 2016). Increased participation among under-

represented groups will have an especially persistent anti-elite impact on

policy if members of such groups vote for candidates and parties that faithfully

represent them.

Given that lower-class individuals and socioethnic minorities tend to have

lower levels of political sophistication (Delli Carpini & Keeter, 1996;

Marthaler, 2020;Prior & Lupia, 2008) and that those who abstain under

voluntary rules tend to be less sophisticated (Delli Carpini & Keeter, 1996;

Lassen, 2005;Larcinese, 2007;Smets & van Ham, 2013), there is reason to

question whether members of such groups who are compelled to vote will

reliably select candidates and parties most likely to advance their interests.

Yet, there is also reason for optimism. Going back over a century, scholars

have argued that compulsory voting can create political sophistication in

citizens (e.g., Barth´

elemy, 1912;Brett, 2019;Broomall, 1893;Chapman,

2019;Elliott, 2017;Holls, 1891;Lijphart, 1997;Matsler, 2003;Nerincx,

1901;See, 2007). As political sophisticates are likely to vote based on policy

preferences and evaluations of incumbent performance (e.g., Boonen et al.,

2017;Delli Carpini & Keeter, 1996;Gomez & Wilson, 2001;2006a;2008;

2120 Comparative Political Studies 55(12)