Do Expectations of Divorce Predict Union Formation in the Transition to Adulthood?

• Date: 01 August 2019
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/jomf.12571
• Published date: 01 August 2019

R A University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Do Expectations of Divorce Predict Union

Formation in the Transition to Adulthood?

Objective: This study describes the association

between explicit expectations of divorceand sub-

sequent rst union formation during the transi-

tion to adulthood (ages 18–28).

Background: Expectations for marriage

in young adulthood predict union forma-

tion. Even before marrying, young adults may

express a perceived risk of eventual divorce,

and expectations of divorce may also have impli-

cations for union formation during the transition

to adulthood.

Method: Data from the 2005 to 2015years

of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics Tran-

sition to Adulthood Supplement (n=2,052)

were used to estimate the association between

expectations of divorce and entry into rst pre-

marital cohabitation and rst marriage using

discrete-time logistic and multinomial logistic

survival models.

Results: As hypothesized, greater expectations

for divorce predicted slower entrance into rst

marriage, even when controlling for expec-

tations for marriage and various sociodemo-

graphic characteristics, and predicted a greater

likelihood of both remaining single and being

rst observed cohabiting instead of marrying

in young adulthood for both men and women.

Conclusion: Despite desiring to marry, young

adults may delay marriage if they are concerned

about their risk of future divorce.

Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at

Chapel Hill, 123 West Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC

27516 (rachel.arocho@gmail.com).

This article was edited by Pamela J. Smock.

Key Words: cohabitation, divorce, event history analysis,

marriage, union formation, youth/emergent adulthood.

Young adults often have high hopes for their

futures, including imagined family lives (Ander-

son, 2016b; Plotnick, 2007), but they also likely

recognize early on that their lives will not be

perfect. Those who have witnessed family insta-

bility or divorce think about their own potential

for divorce (Boyer-Pennington, Pennington, &

Spink, 2001; Waller & Peters, 2008), and even

those who have not witnessed divorce or dis-

solution rsthand recognize the possibility that

their plans may not work out quite as they imag-

ined (Arocho & Purtell, 2018). How are youth’s

pictures of the future, good and bad, associated

with how they behave? Young adult expecta-

tions for entering unions predict behavior (Aro-

cho & Kamp Dush, 2017; Willoughby, 2014;

Willoughby & Dworkin, 2009). However, lit-

tle attention has been paid to the less-positive

expectations youth may hold, especially their

expectations to experience divorce. Considering

the prevalence of divorce in the United States

(Cherlin, 2010a), it is perhaps not surprising

that even unmarried young adults may consider

themselves to be at risk of divorce in the future

(Arocho & Purtell, 2018), and explicit expecta-

tions of divorce might also be associated with

behaviors in young adulthood.

Expectations, Marriage, and Cohabitation

in the United States

Expectations for marriage, specically stronger

expectations to marry one day or to marry

sooner rather than later, predict behaviors, such

as risk-taking, in young adulthood (Willoughby

& Dworkin, 2009). Importantly, they also pre-

dict early entrance into marriage (Arocho &

Journal of Marriage and Family 81 (August 2019): 979–990 979

DOI:10.1111/jomf.12571