Do Detainees Plead Guilty Faster? A Survival Analysis of Pretrial Detention and the Timing of Guilty Pleas

• Author: Nick Petersen
• Published date: 01 August 2020
• Date: 01 August 2020
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/0887403419838020
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/0887403419838020

Criminal Justice Policy Review

2020, Vol. 31(7) 1015 –1035

© The Author(s) 2019

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DOI: 10.1177/0887403419838020

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Article

Do Detainees Plead Guilty

Faster? A Survival Analysis

of Pretrial Detention and the

Timing of Guilty Pleas

Nick Petersen1

Abstract

Although numerous quantitative studies have linked pretrial detention to increased

conviction rates, the precise mechanisms linking these decisions remain unclear.

Qualitative studies shed light on these processes, revealing that many detainees plead

guilty quickly to escape the pains of detention, including poor confinement conditions,

strained work or family relations, and “dead time.” Moreover, these pressures to plead

are often exacerbated by uncertain detention length, time-sensitive “exploding” plea

deals, and temporal discounting. Utilizing data on felony defendants from large urban

counties between 1990 and 2004, we assess whether pretrial detention accelerates

the pace of guilty pleas. Survival analyses indicate that pretrial detainees plead guilty

2.86 times faster than released defendants do, suggesting that pretrial detention is a

powerful prosecutorial tool. Moreover, local resources affect case processing time

in ways that are consistent with the courtroom workgroup perspective. Implications

for public policies and future research are discussed.

Keywords

guilty plea, pretrial detention, time-to-plea, bail, case processing time

While considerable attention has been devoted to the effects of pretrial detention on

convictions, surprisingly few studies have sought to identify the mechanisms

underlying these patterns. The limited research in this area suggests that pretrial

1University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA

Corresponding Author:

Nick Petersen, Department of Sociology, University of Miami, Merrick Building, Room 122G, Coral

Gables, FL 33124, USA.

Email: npetersen@miami.edu

838020CJPXXX10.1177/0887403419838020Criminal Justice Policy ReviewPetersen

research-article2019

1016 Criminal Justice Policy Review 31(7)

detention induces guilty pleas in several ways, acting as a form of structural coercion

in plea bargaining negotiations (Cheng, 2012; Euvrard & Leclerc, 2017; Kellough &

Wortley, 2002). Detainees often plead guilty to escape poor confinement conditions,

keep their job, or hold their family together (Pelvin, 2017; Rabinowitz, 2010).

Temporal considerations also play a critical role in compelling detainees to plead

guilty, as many find it difficult to cope with the uncertainty of their detention length,

spending “dead time” in jail, and time-sensitive “exploding” plea deals (Euvrard &

Leclerc, 2017; Kellough & Wortley, 2002; Pelvin, 2017; Rabinowitz, 2010). Thus,

although qualitative studies indicate that detainees in specific jurisdictions plead guilty

quickly to get out of jail, we currently lack generalizable knowledge about how these

dynamics might operate across a wider range of cases and court contexts.

This gap in the literature has important implications for our understanding of pre-

trial detention, as well as criminal case processing more generally. Most quantitative

bail studies capture whether a defendant was detained or convicted, but not the timing

of these decisions. The examination of detention time is not only important in terms of

offering a more fine-grained measure of pretrial detention, but also because the amount

of time a defendant spends in jail can affect the pace of their plea. Moreover, because

the vast majority of defendants are convicted through guilty pleas (Bibas, 2004, 2012;

Lynch, 2016; McCoy, 2005, 2007), it is critical to understand the timing of guilty

pleas. For most defendants, the question is not whether they will plead guilty, but

when (Sacks & Ackerman, 2012). Based on the qualitative literature, we suspect that

pretrial detention is a key factor in explaining the timing of guilty pleas.

We attempt to fill this gap in the literature by investigating the timing of guilty pleas

for felony defendants in the 1990 to 2004 State Court Processing Statistics (SCPS)

data set. Focusing on the timing of guilty pleas allows us to better identify the mecha-

nisms linking pretrial detention and convictions, evaluating the hypothesis that detain-

ees plead guilty quicker to get out of jail. Survival analyses indicate that detainees

plead guilty faster than defendants who are released before adjudication, implying that

pretrial detention can act as a form of structural coercion by inducing guilty pleas. We

also find that the speed of guilty pleas depends on other case characteristics and social

contextual factors in ways that comport with courtroom workgroup theories and exist-

ing research on case processing time. These results have implications for jurisdictions

contemplating bail reform, demonstrating the potential costs of pretrial detention for

the fairness of guilty pleas and the importance of local resources for case processing

dynamics.

Literature Review

Pretrial Detention, Case Outcomes, and Processing Time

A large proportion of criminal defendants come from economically disadvantaged

backgrounds (Pelvin, 2017; Rabinowitz, 2010), and as a result, many of the 500,000

detainees held in U.S. jails each year are forced to wait in jail until adjudication simply

because they cannot afford bail (Edkins & Dervan, 2018; Stevenson, 2018). Given that