Developmental Trajectories of Justice System-Involved Friendship Proportion: Relevance for Predicting Continued Offending Risk in Emerging Adulthood

• Author: Thomas Wojciechowski
• Published date: 01 September 2022
• Date: 01 September 2022
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/07340168211046549
• Subject Matter: Articles

Developmental Trajectories of

Justice System-Involved

Friendship Proportion:

Relevance for Predicting

Continued Offending Risk in

Emerging Adulthood

Thomas Wojciechowski

Abstract

There is limited research which has examined the developmental nature of friendships and their

relevance for offending. This study examined heterogeneity in the development of justice system-

involved friendship proportionality and its relevance for predicting offending continuity in emerging

adulthood. Having a greater proportion of such peers within a friendship collective as individuals

exit adolescence may lead to continued risk of offending in adulthood. The Pathways to

Desistance data were used in analyses. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify devel-

opmental patterns of justice system-involved friendship proportionality during adolescence and

emerging adulthood. Logistic regression was used to assess the relevance of trajectory group assign-

ment for predicting offending risk in emerging adulthood. Findings indicated that a six-group trajec-

tory model best f‌it the data. All other trajectory groups in the model indicated a lower risk of

offending in emerging adulthood than the High Chronic justice system-involved friendship propor-

tionality group. Sensitivity analyses indicated that separation from criminal peers following adoles-

cence may be a more conservative predictor of offending risk in emerging adulthood.

Keywords

deviant peer association, offending, group-based trajectory modeling, development, life-Course

Introduction

Association with deviant peers has been identif‌ied as a robust risk factor predicting offending and the

concept is a major cornerstone of numerous prominent criminological theories (Akers, 1973; Chan,

2019; Nodeland & Morris, 2020; Sutherland & Cressey, 1960; Walters, 2020). While coverage of

School of Criminal Justice, Michigan State University

Corresponding Author:

Thomas Wojciechowski, School of Criminal Justice, Michigan State University, 655 Auditorium Road, East Lansing,

MI 48824-1312, USA.

Email: wojcie42@msu.edu

Article

Criminal Justice Review

2022, Vol. 47(3) 334–353

© 2021 Georgia State University

Article reuse guidelines:

sagepub.com/journals-permissions

DOI: 10.1177/07340168211046549

journals.sagepub.com/home/cjr

this relationship has been relatively comprehensive, there remain areas where further study is neces-

sary. Perhaps the most relevant area where this latter point is true is in understanding life-course pro-

cesses involved with this relationship. This involves an understanding of how friendships with

deviant peers change and develop across the life-course and how these friendships may inf‌luence

offending. Considering that past research has indicated that involvement in offending generally

declines following adolescence (Lussier et al., 2015; Massoglia & Uggen, 2010), more work is nec-

essary for understanding how continued engagement with deviant friends in adulthood may lead to

continuity of offending risk in adulthood. While some research has examined developmental patterns

of deviant peer association in the manner described (Wojciechowski, 2018a), there remains the need

for a more systematic examination of these relationships. One aspect of the peers-offending relation-

ship that has yet to be examined from a developmental perspective is justice system-involved friend-

ship proportionality (JSIFP). This JSIFP here refers to the structure of close friendship ties as a whole

and the proportion of those close friendships that are comprised of peers who have ever been arrested

vs. peers who had never been arrested. Examining peer proportion in this manner as a predictor of

offending would yield a more complete understanding of how friendship ties with individuals

who have had justice-system contact and those who hadn’t impact offending risk net of each

other. This is a major omission because a considerable amount of research has indicated that peer

networks may both change across the life-course in terms of exposure and salience (Alwin et al.,

2018). The present study sought to examine these processes by examining heterogeneity in develop-

mental patterns of JSIFP across adolescence and early adulthood in order to better understand change

and continuity in this social development. This heterogeneity in JSIFP development was then

modeled as a set of predictors of offending risk in emerging adulthood in order to determine how

maintaining high levels of JSIFP predicts continued risk of offending into this period of the

life-course.

Social Learning, Deviant Friends, and the Life-Course

As noted above, deviant peer association has been identif‌ied as a relevant construct for numerous

prominent criminological theories. Differential association theory is the earliest of these prominent

theories (Sutherland & Cressey, 1960). Differential association theory posits that increased propen-

sity for offending results in situations where exposures to def‌initions favorable toward offending out-

weigh exposure to prosocial norms and def‌initions. These def‌initions refer to techniques,

motivations, rationalizations, and attitudes that are conducive to offending. This generally occurs

when individuals spend more time socializing with criminal and/or deviant peers who provide

such def‌initions. While the focus of differential association theory rested mainly on these differences

in exposures to prosocial and antisocial norms, values, and attitudes; Akers’(1973) social learning

theory extends an understanding of the relevance of peers to also include processes related to rein-

forcement and punishment. These processes involve actions/reactions or potential actions/reactions

that increase or decrease the likelihood that an individual will engage in criminal/deviant behavior in

the future. In relation to deviant peers, reinforcement is most relevant here, as these peers may

encourage individuals to engage in deviant/criminal through praise, encouragement, or other

forms of peer pressure. Association with more deviant peers then should result in increased exposure

to reinforcement or potential reinforcement like this and function to increase the risk of offending.

Association with prosocial peers should result in the opposite effect, as these individuals may

engage in threats of or actual punishment if their friend offends (ex: threatening to no longer

spend time with them).

While the mechanisms by which one’s social circle may inf‌luence their offending risk are clear in

both of these theories, not all sources of def‌initions, reinforcement, and punishment are posited to

have the same impact on offending risk. These processes are expected to vary in their intensity,

Wojciechowski 335