Development and Crime Drop: A Time-Series Analysis of Crime Rates in Hong Kong in the Last Three Decades

• Author: Hua Zhong,Xi Chen
• Date: 01 March 2021
• Published date: 01 March 2021
• DOI: 10.1177/0306624X20969946
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/0306624X20969946

International Journal of

Offender Therapy and

Comparative Criminology

2021, Vol. 65(4) 409 –433

© The Author(s) 2020

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DOI: 10.1177/0306624X20969946

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Article

Development and Crime

Drop: A Time-Series Analysis

of Crime Rates in Hong Kong

in the Last Three Decades

Xi Chen1 and Hua Zhong1

Abstract

Although the recent crime drop in Western societies has rejuvenated crime trend

studies, little is known about the crime trends and the corresponding explanations

in the East. This study aims to fill the gaps by examining different types of offenses

in Hong Kong between 1976 and 2017. Specifically, this study tests and evaluates

major macro-level theoretical approaches explaining crime trends, including

institutional anomie theory, routine activities theory, and deterrence theory. Using

Error Correction Models, our analyses reveal that the strengths of different social

institutions are negatively associated with crime rates, showing strong support to

institutional anomie theory. The results also partially support routine activities theory

by demonstrating that levels of economic development are negatively associated

with both violent and property crime rates, and the number of mobile cellular

subscriptions is negatively related to homicide rates. Deterrence explanations are

mainly supported for property crime. These findings provide theoretical insights on

the etiology of crime and also yield important policy suggestions on how to sustain

the observed decline in crime rates in modern societies.

Keywords

development, crime drop, institutional anomie, routine activities, deterrence

Introduction

As shown by both official crime statistics and victim surveys, there is a substantial

decline in crime rates in many types of common or street crimes in the United States

1The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong

Corresponding Author:

Hua Zhong, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, 4/F Sino Building, Shatin NT, Hong Kong.

Email: sarazhong@cuhk.edu.hk

969946IJOXXX10.1177/0306624X20969946International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative CriminologyChen and Zhong

research-article2020

410 International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology 65(4)

since the early 1990s (Farrell et al., 2014) and most of the advanced Western societies,

such as the U.K (Office for National Statistics, 2013), Canada (Ouimet, 2002),

Australia (Mayhew, 2012), New Zealand (Mayhew, 2012) and much of Europe

(Tseloni et al., 2010; van Dijk & Tseloni, 2012), despite with some variations in timing

and magnitude. The crime drop throughout the Western world has become a puzzle as

it is almost completely unforeseen and has attracted increased attention of researchers

to figure out its reasons. Understanding the mechanisms responsible for the drop of

certain crimes could not only provide theoretical insight on the etiology of crime, but

also yield important lessons on how to sustain the observed reductions and to replicate

them elsewhere.

Despite the rejuvenating of crime trends studies in recent years, the research pic-

ture on macro-level crime trends is far from complete. First, existing research on the

nature and reasons of crime drop is largely limited to Western contexts and little is

known about the crime trends and explanations for crime changes outside the

Western societies. Recently, a few studies have documented a decline in homicide

rates in Japan (Johnson, 2008) and India (Ansari et al., 2015), as well as a reduction

in property crime in Hong Kong, Japan, and Taiwan (Sidebottom et al., 2018).

However, no study has rigorously examined the possible explanations of crime

changes in the context of Asia.

Second, most studies on explanations of crime drop are variable-centric and not

theory-driven (Baumer et al., 2018). For instance, Levitt (2004) identified 10 possibili-

ties, Baumer (2008) selected 12 potentially relevant factors, and more recently, Farrell

et al. (2014) brought about 17 unique hypotheses, many of which represent a single

factor or variable. These studies, while providing important insights, have produced

fragmented knowledge and contributed to a complex and disorganized explanatory

landscape that makes it difficult to see commonalities in explanations and parallels in

empirical findings.

Moreover, the dearth of theory-driven research is compounded by a lack of time-

series/longitudinal research on the macro-level crime trends. Quite a number of crime

trend studies are based on multinational or multistate samples. The cross-sectional

nature of the data precluded the researchers from ascertaining the causal relationship

between various factors and crime changes. Thus, time-series data that model histori-

cal changes in development and crime within a particular society may be more suitable

for analyzing the dynamics of crime.

This study aims to fill these gaps by examining different types of offenses (i.e.,

homicide, violent crime, and property crime) in Hong Kong between 1976 and 2017.

By investigating the relationship between multiple socioeconomic variables and crime

rates in Hong Kong, this study systematically tests and evaluates three macro theoreti-

cal approaches, including institutional anomie theory, routine activities theory, and

deterrence theory. Hong Kong is considered an interesting research site for under-

standing the relationship between socioeconomic changes and crime rates as it emu-

lates some elements of American capitalism yet has persistent collective cultural

norms that contribute to strong informal social control and low levels of general

crime rates (Broadhurst, 2005). In addition, as it takes several hundred years of