Deterrent and Experiential Effects in Perceptual Deterrence Research: a Replication and Extension

• Author: W.William Minor,Joseph Harry
• Published date: 01 July 1982
• Date: 01 July 1982
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/002242788201900204
• Subject Matter: Articles

190

DETERRENT

AND

EXPERIENTIAL

EFFECTS

IN

PERCEPTUAL

DETERRENCE

RESEARCH:

A

REPLICATION

AND

EXTENSION

W.

WILLIAM

MINOR

JOSEPH

HARRY

The

present

research

is

a

replication

of

the

Saltzman

et

al.

study

concerning

deterrent

and

experiential

effects

in

perceptual

deterrence

research.

Despite

certain

design

differences

in

the

two

studies

(e.g.,

we

used

a

shorter

lag

between

Time

One

and

Time

Two),

our

findings

replicate

theirs

in

that

(1)

perceptions

of

risk

are

not

particularly

stable,

even

over

a

period

as

short

as

three

months,

and

(2)

experiential

effects

are

consistently

larger

and

more

often

significant

than

deterrent

effects.

Both

in

our

data

and

in

the

Saltzman

et

al.

data,

we

find

interactions

which

specify

the

experiential

effect

as

most

likely

to

occur

among

those

with

initially

high

perceptions

of

risk

(a

naiveté

effect)

rather

than

among

those

for

whom

a

given

form

of

behavior

is

new

(a

novelty

effect),

as

Saltzman

et

al.

had

contended.

We

conclude

that

the

substitution

of

experien-

tial

effects

for

deterrent

effects

is

not justified,

that

studies

which

have

done

so

are

moot

on

the

subject

of

deterrence,

and

that

longitudinal

designs

may

be

essential

for

resolution

of

the

causal

order

problem.

In

the

last fifteen

years

deterrence

research

has

employed

three

major

methodological

approaches:

natural

experiments,

ecological

com-

parisons

based

on

available

data,

and

perception/self-report

surveys

of

individuals.

Policy

changes

are

difficult

to

study

as

natural

experiments

W.

WILLIAM

MINOR:

Associate

Professor,

Department

of

Sociology,

Northern

Illinois

University,

DeKalb.

JOSEPH

HARRY:

Associate

Professor,

Department

of

Sociology,

Northern

Illinois

University.

This

research

was

supported

in

part

by

grant

number

80-IJ-CX-0091

from

the

National

Institute of

Justice,

but

our

conclusions

do

not

represent

any

official

position

of

NIJ

or

the

Department

of

Justice.

The

authors

wish

to

acknowledge

the

contributions

made

by

Jerry

L.

Larson

and

Janet

Rosenbaum,

who

coauthored,

with

the

first

author,

an

earlier

version

of

this

paper

(Minor,

Larson,

and

Rosenbaum,

&dquo;A

Longitudinal

Study

of

Perceptual

Deterrence:

De-

terrent

versus

Experiential

Effects,&dquo;

presented

at

the

1980

meeting

of

the

American

Society

of

Criminology).

Raymond

Paternoster

graciously

provided

us

with

the

data

for

the

research

we

are

replicating,

as

well

as

with

details

about

their

original

analysis.

Computer

support

was

provided

by

the

University

of

Maryland

and

Northern

Illinois

University.