Determination rises out of economic uncertainty.

• Author: Schwab, Robert

"No GUARANTEES," I SAY, WHEN SOMEONE TRIES TO PITCH A STORY HE OR SHE WOULD LIKE TO SEE IN OUR MAGAZINE.

And if 2001's slowing economy, the Broncos' season so far, or even Yankee magic, is put in context, it's clear no one really can guarantee much of anything.

Like health-insurance rates. Jeanie Stokes writes in this issue (page 28) that small business owners in Colorado are being pushed to the brink of not offering employee health-insurance benefits because rates have jumped by double-digit percentages annually for the past two years.

Employers are asking their employees to bear some of that cost, but the employee share itself is being raised so high that you wonder how long workers/consumers will want to keep paying for the so-called benefit, especially if they are healthy.

Then again, there are no guarantees anyone will stay healthy.

I interviewed Nancy McCallin, the state's chief economist, for our annual economic-forecast feature (page 32).

She predicted an economic turnaround driven by the normal business cycle, nationally and statewide, if not by next summer, then perhaps toward late fall. The nation and state will weather the tenor war, she said confidently.

Yet, she, too, didn't offer any guarantees.

High oil prices, frigid consumer spending, overbuilding in Colorado real estate markets, another terrorist attack -- too much can happen that can knock the business cycle off its track.

In late October, at the Governor's 2001 Tourism Conference, I had a chance to hear Dan Melfi, assistant director of marketing for Denver International Airport, tell a crowd of tourism...