Determinants of Environmental Conflict: When Do Communities Mobilize against Fossil Fuel Production?

• Author: Swetha Ramachandran,Shi-Teng Kang,Andrew Cheon
• DOI: 10.1177/0022002721999778
• Date: 01 August 2021
• Published date: 01 August 2021
• Subject Matter: Articles

Article

Determinants of

Environmental Conflict:

When Do Communities

Mobilize against Fossil

Fuel Production?

Andrew Cheon

1

, Shi-Teng Kang

2

,

and Swetha Ramachandran

3

Abstract

When do indigenous and other negatively affected populations mobilize against fossil

fuel companies? We revisit social movement theory and environmental literature to

identify three factors that may plausibly shape mobilization decisions of negatively

affected populations—democraticinstitutions, communityperceptions of government

shaped by land tenure security, and firm attributes. Democratic institutions afford

more opportunities for affected populations to air their grievances through protests

than non-democratic ones. Land tenure security guaranteed by government con-

tributes to the perception among affected populations that their objectives are better

achieved through government mediation than protests. Characteristics of fossil fuel

firms, such as state ownership, also shape activist perceptions of government cred-

ibility as a mediator. By analyzing fifty-seven countries over the period 1990 to 2013,

we find that democracy and state ownership of fossil fuel firms are positively asso-

ciated with protests, whereas land tenure security is negatively associated.

Keywords

conflict, democratic institutions, political economy, resource extraction

1

Johns Hopkins SAIS, Washington, DC, USA

2

The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA, USA

3

Graduate Institute Geneva, Switzerland

Corresponding Author:

Andrew Cheon, Johns Hopkins SAIS, 1717 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington, DC 20036, USA.

Email: acheon1@jhu.edu

Journal of Conflict Resolution

2021, Vol. 65(7-8) 1308-1336

ªThe Author(s) 2021

Article reuse guidelines:

sagepub.com/journals-permissions

DOI: 10.1177/0022002721999778

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Introduction

The environmental consequences of fossil fuel production are often borne by the

communities in its vicinity, rather than the corporate interests that profit from it

(Kennedy, Schafft, and Howard 2017; Martinez-Alier et al. 2016; Martinez-Alier

2002). Besides climate change, fossil fuel production has been linked to local pollu-

tion, deforestation, toxic water systems, and even earthquakes (Nace 2009; McKib-

ben 2013; Piggot 2018; Wylie 2018; Cheon and Urpelainen 2018). These negative

externalities can lead to public confrontations between affected communities and

fossil fuel companies (Navas, Mingorria, and Aguilar-Gonz´alez 2018).

In principle, it should be possible for governments to regulate negative extern-

alities of fossil fuel production and offer affected populations the means to settle

disputes (Sexton 2020; Conde 2017; Kennedy 2017; Martinez-Alier et al. 2016;

Tienhaara 2011). Under what conditions do affected populations resort to protests

against fossil fuel companies? Are some governments more effective than others in

preventing protests?

To answer these questions, we use the Environmental Justice Atlas (EJ Atlas)

dataset to examine the determinants of protests surrounding fossil fuel production

across fifty-seven countries for the period 1990 to 2013 (Temper, del Bene, and

Martinez-Alier 2015; Martinez-Alier et al. 2016; Navas, Mingorria, and Aguilar-

Gonz´alez 2018). We identify three plausible determinants of protests: 1) democratic

institutions, 2) positive perceptions of government, and 3) firm characteristics. First,

democracies afford affected populations greater opportunities to protest than non-

democracies. Second, a track record of upholding land tenure security can enhance a

government’s credibility as a mediator, encouraging communities to rely on gov-

ernment channels than public protest. Third, observable firm characteristics, such as

state ownership, may cripple a governmen t’s ability to mediate dispassionatel y,

pushing affected populations toward protest. Our statistical analysis uncovers evi-

dence for all three determinants.

This research makes a unique contribution by bringing together insights from

social movement theory and environmental studies to examine resistance against

fossil fuel production, a class of conflicts largely overshadowed by civil wars in the

resource curse literature (Collier and Hoeffler 2005; Humphreys, Sachs, and Stiglitz

2007; Karl 1997; Ross 2013; Colgan 2014). Our cross-national study also sheds light

on the role of community interests and perceptions, an understudied topic in inter-

national political economy of energy and the environment (Hancock and Vivoda

2014). Finally, we advance a research agenda that examines land tenure security and

its promise for environmental justice (Conde 2017; Kennedy 2017; Martinez-Alier

et al. 2016).

The article proceeds as follows. First, we provide an interdisciplinary overview of

the existing literature. Second, we present hypotheses for understanding protests

surrounding fossil fuels. Third, we describe our research design, which utilizes count

Cheon et al. 1309