Detecting the Determinants and Trajectories of Homicide Among Ransom Kidnappings: A Research Note

• Author: Rob T. Guerette,Stephen F. Pires,Auzeen Shariati
• Published date: 01 May 2018
• Date: 01 May 2018
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/1088767916685367
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/1088767916685367

Homicide Studies

2018, Vol. 22(2) 214 –229

© 2017 SAGE Publications

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DOI: 10.1177/1088767916685367

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Article

Detecting the Determinants

and Trajectories of Homicide

Among Ransom Kidnappings:

A Research Note

Rob T. Guerette1, Stephen F. Pires1,

and Auzeen Shariati1

Abstract

Despite common media reports of death among kidnapped victims, little is known

about the extent and factors that determine whether victims will be killed during the

ransom process. Using data on 9,469 kidnappings for ransom incidents, which occurred

in Colombia, South America between the years 2002 and 2011, this exploratory study

sought to determine whether predictable patterns existed among those incidents in

which victims were killed. The analyses revealed significant differences in the odds of

death across victims, offenders, and situational circumstances. Distinct time-to-death

trajectories were also found. Recognizing and understanding these patterns offer to

improve preventive efforts.

Keywords

ransom kidnapping, abduction, death trajectories, crime prevention, Colombia,

expressive violence

Introduction

Few crimes are as sensational as the kidnapping of a person. In some countries of the

world, the frequency of kidnapping is so great that it has seemingly reached epidemic

proportions (e.g., Colombia, Mexico, Iraq). Media portrayals of kidnapping incidents

commonly report on incidents that resulted in the eventual killing of the victim, lead-

ing to the impression that death among kidnapped victims is relatively common.

1Florida International University, Miami, USA

Corresponding Author:

Rob T. Guerette, Florida International University, 11200 SW 8th Street, PCA 366B, Miami, FL 33199,

USA.

Email: guerette@fiu.edu

685367HSXXXX10.1177/1088767916685367Homicide StudiesGuerette et al.

research-article2017

Guerette et al. 215

Indeed, the recent beheadings of kidnapped American citizens carried out by the

Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) terrorist group in Iraq and Syria prominently

display the apparent high likelihood of victims being killed. Some published research

has also implicated a somewhat high proportion of death among victims (Phillips,

2015).1 More recent research, which relied on perhaps the largest systematically col-

lected repository of kidnappings, however, found that only about 5% of kidnapped

victims were killed (Pires, Guerette, & Stubbert, 2014). Although research has yet to

clearly determine the extent to which death occurs among those kidnapped, it remains

even less clear which factors determine whether victims will be killed or survive and

how quickly that fate will be reached. Experts who routinely negotiate kidnapping

ransoms contend that it is the inexperienced kidnapping offenders who are more likely

to kill their victims (ostensibly in haste),2 but there has been little systematic inquiry

in this area.

As is often told in media reports of terrorist-based kidnappings, many of the

offender groups who carry out kidnappings are declared to be driven by strong reli-

gious or political ideologies, things that often fuel great emotional sentiment. Indeed,

one study that analyzed the methods used by kidnappers to kill their victims found that

a substantial proportion were characterized by “hostile” and “spontaneous” violence,

which suggests that they were emotionally driven (Phillips, 2015). If this is true and

the killing of kidnapped victims is a form of expressive violence, then few patterns

should exist across samples of victims. If, however, the killing of victims is more

selective and instrumental, then discernible patterns and predictabilities should be evi-

dent. Identifying and understanding any predictabilities offer to improve efforts to

prevent the killing of kidnapped victims.

The aim of this research note was to better understand the nature of death among

ransom kidnappings. The study examined 9,469 kidnappings for ransom in Colombia,

South America, which occurred from 2002 to 2011. The purpose was to determine

whether differences existed in the odds of death across victim types and offender

groups and to examine for variations in the trajectories of time to failure (i.e., death)

among incident characteristics. Following a review of existing kidnapping and ransom

research, a brief overview of the circumstances surrounding kidnappings in Colombia,

South America, is presented to help orient the analyses.

Research Context

Death Among Kidnapping Victims

A conservative estimate reveals that at least 25,000 kidnapping for ransom (K&R)

incidents occur annually in the world. Other estimates reveal up to 100,000 are kid-

napped on an annual basis (Christi, 2008). Despite this growing prevalence of kidnap-

pings in the world, remarkably little is known about the process and outcomes of

kidnapping incidents. The lack of reporting by victims3 (Lechner, 2007) significantly

inhibits research on K&R. Therefore, understanding death in captivity is difficult

without complete data on incidents. Nonetheless, some studies, using small samples