Deregulation of public civilian gun carrying and violent crimes: A longitudinal analysis 1981–2019

• Published date: 01 November 2024
• Author: Mitchell L. Doucette,Cassandra K. Crifasi,Alex D. McCourt,Julie A. Ward,Rebecca L. Fix,Daniel W. Webster
• Date: 01 November 2024
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12638

DOI: ./- .

SPECIAL ISSUE ARTICLE

GUN VIOLENCE

Deregulation of public civilian gun carrying and

violent crimes: A longitudinal analysis

1981–2019

Mitchell L. Doucette1Cassandra K. Crifasi1

Alex D. McCourt1Julie A. Ward2Rebecca L. Fix3

Daniel W. Webster1

Center for Gun Violence Solutions, Johns

Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public

Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA

Department of Medicine, Health, and

Society, Vanderbilt University, Nashville,

Tennessee, USA

Department of Mental Health, Johns

Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public

Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA

Correspondence

Mitchell L. Doucette, Center for Gun

Violence Solutions, Johns Hopkins

Bloomberg School of Public Health, 

N. WolfeSt., Baltimore, MD , USA.

Email: mdoucet@jhu.edu

Funding information

New VentureFund; The Joyce Foundation

Abstract

Research Summary: We utilized the synthetic

difference-in-difference method to estimate the impact

of adopting a permitless concealed carry weapons

(CCW) law on rates of assaults, robberies, and homi-

cides committed with a firearm and by other means,

as well as weapons arrests, from  to . We strat-

ified permitless CCW laws by whether they previously

prohibited violent misdemeanants from obtaining a

CCW permit or previously required live firearm training

to obtain a permit prior to law adoption. Findings

robust to sensitivity analyses suggest that states that

lost a training requirement to obtain a CCW permit

had  additional gun assaults per , population

(SE =.) (% increase).

Policy Implications: In the wake of the Supreme

Court’s decision in New York State Rifle & Pistol Asso-

ciation, Inc. v. Bruen, states should implement CCW

permitting law provisions that may reduce the risk of

firearm violence. Requiring live firearm training prior to

carry a concealed weapon may attenuate negativehealth

This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and

reproduction in any medium, providedthe original work is properly cited.

©  The Authors. Criminology & Public Policypublished by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society of Criminology.

Criminology & Public Policy. ;:–. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/capp 833

834 DOUCETTE  .

impacts of deregulation associated with permitless CCW

laws.

KEYWORDS

firearms, policy evaluation, weapons-related arrests

1BACKGROUND

1.1 Concealed Carry Weapons laws

Gun violence remains a public health crisis in the United States. The largest number of firearm

homicides in more than  years was recorded in  (Centers for Disease Control[CDC], ).

This record was preceded by a national trend in the relaxation of the laws that govern the pub-

lic carrying of concealed firearms. Concealed carry weapons (CCW) permitting laws (sometimes

referred to as Right-to-Carry laws) are state-level policies that regulate (or deregulate) concealed

handgun carrying in public. These laws, typically classified as no issue,may issue,shall issue,and

permitless CCW laws, exist on a spectrum based on the level of discretion law enforcement has

over who is eligible to carry a concealed weapon. No issue CCWlawsdonotofferalegalpathway

for citizens to carry a weapon in public. May and shall issue CCW laws create a state permitting

system that regulates who can legally carry a concealed weapon in public spaces. May issue laws

provide substantial discretion to law enforcement todeny CCW permits to applicants based either

on failure to demonstrate “proper cause” or need or for safety concerns. Shall issue laws removea

potential permittee’s need to demonstrateproper cause, likening the permitting system to a more

administrative function where anyone who is eligible to own a gun under state and federal stan-

dards is also eligible to receive a CCW permit. Permitless CCW laws freely allow the lawful gun

owners to carry concealed handguns in public. Table details the legal landscape of CCW lawsin

the United States as of January .

There is some heterogeneity in shall issue CCW laws. While all these laws still remove the

need for potential permittees to display proper cause, some contain provisions related to famil-

iarity with firearms. For example, some states require applicants to undergo live firearm training,

requiring a certain number of hours at a firing range and/or proficiency (e.g., applicants must

hit a designated target with % of their shots). These provisions ensure all CCW permit holders

have demonstrated that they can safely discharge a gun prior to carrying a loaded handgun in

public. Other shall issue states prohibit those with violent misdemeanor convictions from obtain-

ing a CCW permit. In the absence of a state law prohibiting the purchase or possession of guns by

violent misdemeanants, these provisions serve as the only legal means from keeping previously

dangerous individuals from carrying a loaded handgun in public spaces.

In the past  years, laws regulating concealed gun carrying have undergone large shifts, mov-

ing from principally restrictive to permissivelaws. Indeed,  states did not permit civilians to carry

a concealed firearm under any circumstances in  (Doucette, McCourt, et al., ; Doucette,

Ward , et al ., ). As of writing this paper, in , no states remain “no issue” while  states

allow for the permitless carry of a concealed weapon and  states issue permits on a shall issue

basis.