Demography and the Economy.

• Position: Conferences

NBER Research Associate John B. Shoven of Stanford University organized a conference on "Demography and the Economy" that took place in California on April 11 and 12. These papers were discussed:

Sam H. Preston and Caroline R. Sten, University of Pennsylvania, "The Future of American Fertility"

Discussant: Gopi Shah Goda, Harvard University

Larry E. Jones, University of Minnesota and NBER; Alice Schoonbroodt, Southampton University; and Michele Tertilt, Stanford University and NBER, "Fertility and Income in the Cross Section: Evidence and Theory"

Discussant: Amalia Miller, University of Virginia

Adam Isen and Betsey Stevenson, University of Pennsylvania, "Women's Education and Family Behavior: Trends in Marriage, Divorce, and Fertility"

Discussant: Enrico Moretti, University of California, Berkeley and NBER

Gopi Shah Goda and John B. Shoven, "Adjusting Government Policies for Age Inflation"

Discussant: Warren Sanderson, SUNY Stony Brook

Axel Borsch-Supan, University of Mannheim and NBER, and Alexander Ludwig, University of Mannheim, "Old Europe Ages. Can it Still Prosper?"

Discussant: Alan J. Auerbach, University of California, Berkeley and NBER

Shripad Tuljapurkar, Stanford University, "The Final Inequality: Changes in the Variance in Age at Death over Time"

Discussant: Victor R. Fuchs, Stanford University and NBER,

James M. Poterba, MIT and NBER; Steven F. Venti, Dartmouth College and NBER; and David A. Wise, Harvard University and NBER, "Demographic Trends, Housing Equity, and the Financial Security of Future Retirees"

Discussant: Thomas Davidoff, University of California, Berkeley

Sylvester J. Schieber, Social Security Advisory Board, "Richer or Poorer When Death Do Us Part?"

Discussant: Steven F. Venti

Orazio Attanasio, University College London and NBER; Sagiri Kitao, University of Southern California; and Giovanni L.Violante, New York University and NBER, "Financing Medicare: A General Equilibrium Analysis"

Discussant: Moshe Bushinsky, University of California, Los Angeles and NBER

Francesco C. Billari and Guido Tabellini, Universita' Bocconi, "Italians are Late: Does it Matter?"

Discussant: Luigi Pistaferri, Stanford University

The level of fertility is the principal determinant of the shape of a population's age structure, which in turn is a critical factor in the terms-of-trade within a pay-as-you-go system of public pensions. Social Security Administration simulations show that the 75-year actuarial balance of the social security system would be $2.6 trillion higher in present value if fertility were high (2.3 children/woman) rather than low (1.7). Partly because of their long-run effects on population age structure, national fertility levels are considered "too low" by a majority of governments in developed countries. Preston and Sten review the major factors that appear to be affecting fertility levels in the United States, with an eye towards making defensible statements about future directions of fertility. There is no single widely accepted framework for analyzing the determinants of fertility at the level of a population. In its place...