Defining victory.

• Author: Gvosdev, Nikolas K.
• Position: Iraq war

AMERICA HAS no choice but to succeed in Iraq. The country's collapse could fuel chaos in the Middle East; a terrorist base there could support new attacks in America, in the region, in Europe and worldwide. The consequences of defeat in Iraq extend beyond this as well. As the only global superpower, the United States can afford to make mistakes--even big ones. But it cannot allow itself to be defeated in a priority-defining project like Iraq. After investing the lives and well-being of American soldiers, $200 billion in taxpayer funds and substantial amounts of international political capital, failure could be very damaging both abroad and at home.

Why and how we got into Iraq and what choices could have been made differently: This is not central to when and how we get out. Only victory is. This is not to say that the Bush Administration has not made mistakes in the war and in the occupation. The U.S. assessment, shared by other governments, that Iraq was energetically engaged in WMD programs was clearly incorrect. The administration's expectations for postwar Iraq were also incorrect and led to a series of decisions--like disbanding the Iraqi army and other state institutions with little thought given to what would replace them--that have made it harder rather than easier to set Iraq back on its feet. The role of Ahmed Chalabi and company in shaping U.S. policy certainly deserves much greater scrutiny in this connection. But the appropriate study and debate of "lessons learned" should not crowd out discussion of the way forward.

Unfortunately, at the political level that discussion has been weak so far. In fairness, the war in Iraq is a problem with no good solution. Still, after two years (and with no end in sight), we believe it's time for hard thinking.

Some--Republicans and Democrats both--are calling for the administration to develop an exit strategy and to implement a schedule for the withdrawal of American forces by a designated date, "limited only by steps to ensure the safety" of U.S. troops, in the words of the so-called "Homeward Bound" legislation. Others, who see Iraq as an instrument to spread freedom and transform the Middle East, seem prepared to accept a virtually indefinite commitment of American forces, resources and attention.

Both strategies are problematic. Withdrawal after a self-proclaimed "victory" that leaves the insurgency largely intact and operational would fool no one; Americans and others around the world...