Defense strategy in a square corner.

• Author: Farrell, Lawrence P.
• Position: President's perspective

In fighter pilot parlance, a "square corner" is an impossible tactical situation, a maneuver that is completely undoable. As aircraft turns are curvilinear, it is not possible to execute an exact right angle, 90-degree turn.

A square corner is an apt description of the situation now facing the Defense Department. It has a strategy laid out in the 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review that could not possibly be executed with its current resources.

Two important documents underscore this bleak reality. One is a presentation given by Congressional Budget Director Douglas Elmendorf to the Economic Club of Minnesota in February. He started by revealing that the federal budget deficit has fallen sharply from the 2009 peak of $1.4 trillion to about $500 billion and only 3 percent of gross domestic product in 2014.

Does anyone recall the outrage and fulmination that accompanied President George W. Bush administration's $450 billion deficit? And now we seem to be cheering a deficit of "only" $500 billion. To quickly puncture this short-lived celebration, Elmendorf goes on to say that the United States "has not made the fundamental choices it needs to make" to manage its fiscal future. And he notes that federal debt remains on an unsustainable path."

Between now and 2024, CBO projects deficits of 3 to 4 percent of GDP with publicly held debt rising to 80 percent of GDP. Government spending continues to rise to 22 percent of GDP with revenues lagging at 18 percent of GDP, while piling up more debt. Alarmingly, net interest on the debt rises to 3.3 percent of GDP. And projections of health care, Social Security and net interest are on the rise, with all other categories falling, including defense. With caps on discretionary spending set in the law, the non-discretionary components increase unconstrained.

This is, indeed, a dire picture of the nation's financial situation and of the challenges that lie ahead. For example, a $4 trillion deficit reduction over 10 years merely returns us to the previous 40-year average. And this would require a one-fifth cut in 'Social Security or one-fifth cut in non-interest spending, or a 10 percent increase in taxes. It all comes down to reducing health care and retirement, or raising taxes.

This report serves as context for what the Defense Department faces as it tries to execute a strategy--and its required force structure and resources--set in the QDR with the funding that is available.

We now have a formal assessment...