Decarbonizing Light-Duty Vehicles
| Date | 01 July 2018 |
| Author |
48 ELR 10596 ENVIRONMENTAL LAW REPORTER 7-2018
ARTICLES
Decarbonizing
Light-Duty
Vehicles
by Amy L. Stein and Joshua Fershée
Amy L. Stein is Professor of Law at the University of Florida
Levin School of Law. Joshua Fershée is Associate Dean for
Faculty Research and Development and Professor of Law
at the West Virginia University (WVU) College of Law,
Center for Energy and Sustainable Development and WVU
Center for Innovation in Gas Research and Utilization.
Summary
Reducing the United States’ greenhouse gas emis-
sions by at least 80% from 1990 levels by 2050 will
require multiple legal pathways for changing its trans-
portation fuel sources. e Deep Decarbonization
Pathways Project (DDPP) authors characterize trans-
forming the transportation system as part of a third
pillar of fundamental changes required in the U.S.
energy system: “fuel switching of end uses to elec-
tricity and other low-carbon supplies.” e goal is to
shift 80%-95% of the miles driven from gasoline to
energy sources like electricity and hydrogen. Relying
upon the DDPP analysis, this Article, excerpted from
Michael B. Gerrard & John C. Dernbach, eds., Legal
Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in the United States
(forthcoming in 2018 from ELI Press), addresses that
challenge as applied to light-duty vehicles such as cars
an d SU Vs.
Introduction
An important component of reducing U.S. greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by at least 80% from 1990 levels by 2050
involves legal pathways for changing our sources of trans-
portation. Historically, the power sector was the largest
source of carbon dioxide emissions. For the rst time since
carbon emissions were initially tracked in the 1970s, how-
ever, the transportation sector is now the leading source
of carbon emissions.1 As of 2015, the transportation sec-
tor was responsible for approximately 27% of GHG emis-
sions2 an d 34%3 of all U.S. carbon emissions.4 is shift
is largely due to accelerated decreases in carbon intensity5
for the power sector compared to the transportation sec-
tor (driven, in large part, by fuel switching from coal to
natural gas).6 Notably, the transportation sector emits more
GHG emissions even though the power sector reects a
larger share of energy consumption.7
Within the transportation sector, emissions from light-
duty vehicles (LDVs)8 such as cars and sport utility vehicles
(SUVs) account for more than one-half of total tra nspor-
1. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Power Sector Carbon Diox-
ide Emissions Fall Below Transportation Sector Emissions, T E,
Jan. 19, 2017 [hereinafter Power Sector] (“U.S. carbon dioxide (CO2) emis-
sions from the transportation sector reached 1,893 million metric tons
(MMt) from October 2015 through September 2016... .”), http://www.
eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=29612.
2. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Sources of Greenhouse Gas
Emissions (compared to 25% emissions from the power sector), https://
www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emissions (last updated
Apr. 14, 2017); Power Sector, supra note 1.
3. T W H, U S M-C S D
D 41 g. 4.9 (2016), http://unfccc.int/les/focus/long-
term_strategies/application/pdf/us_mid_century_strategy.pdf.
4. U.S. EPA, Fast Facts on Transportation Greenhouse Gas Emissions, https://
www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/fast-facts-transportation-greenhouse-gas-emis-
sions (last updated Sept. 26, 2017). e latter gure is even higher if one
includes oil reneries. Id.
5. EIA, Carbon Intensity of Energy Use Is Lowest in U.S. Industrial and Elec-
tric Power Sectors, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=31012
(“Carbon intensities reect the consumption-weighted average of the car-
bon intensities of the primary fuels consumed in each sector.”).
6. EIA, Natural Gas Expected to Surpass Coal in Mix of Fuel Used for U.S. Power
Generation in 2016, T E, Mar. 16, 2015, https://www.eia.gov/
todayinenergy/detail.php?id=25392.
7. Power Sector, supra note 1.
8. e EIA denes LDV to
include passenger and eet cars and trucks with a gross vehicle
weight rating (GVWR) of 8,500 pounds or less. Light-duty vehicle
energy consumption can be inuenced by vehicle fuel economy or
through passenger behavior and vehicle use. LDV fuel eciency,
the number of vehicles on the road (vehicle stock and new sales
each year), and the vehicle mix between cars and light-duty trucks
are key factors that determine fuel consumption. Driving behavior,
distance traveled, and driver response to fuel price and vehicle price
also inuence energy consumption by LDVs.
Authors’ Note: is Article was completed with the support of the University
of Florida Law School and research assistance from Joshua Rieger, and
with the generous support of the WVU College of Law and the Hodges
Summer Research Fund with research assistance from Morgan Villers.
Copyright © 2018 Environmental Law Institute®, Washington, DC. Reprinted with permission from ELR®, http://www.eli.org, 1-800-433-5120.
7-2018 NEWS & ANALYSIS 48 ELR 10597
tation GHG em issions.9 As such, LDVs are an important
sector for decarbonization eorts. e Deep Dec arbon-
ization Pathways Project (DDPP) authors anticipate two
changes required for our LDV eet by 2050: (1)increased
fuel economy standards in excess of 100 miles per gallon
(mpg); and (2)deployment of approximately 300 million
alternative fuel vehicles (AF Vs) to shift 80%-95% of the
miles driven from gasoline to low-carbon fuels.10
Relying upon the 2015 DDPP analysis and its Mixed
Scenario,11 which assumes an equa l blend of electric,
hybrids, and hydrogen vehicles, this Article addresses
these two specic cha llenges and develops legal path-
ways to achieve these goals. It begins with a brief primer
on LDV types, their GHG contributions, and the DDPP
authors’ projections for an LDV future (Part I). Part II then
describes the existing legal regime for LDVs and the barri-
ers to achieving more extensive alternative vehicle deploy-
ment. Finally, Part III advances legal pathways to achieve
the light-duty decarbonization goals by 2050.
I. The Role of LDVs in Decarbonization
LDVs are the predominant source of GHG and carbon
dioxide emissions in the transportat ion sector.12 LDVs,
as dened by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA) for emissions purposes, include passenger vehi-
cles such as cars, minivans, light truck s, and SUVs that
have a maximum gross vehicle weight rating of less than
8,500 pound s.13
LDVs are heavily dominated by conventional internal
combustion engines (ICEs) that emit approximately 20
pounds of carbon dioxide for every gal lon of gas burned.14
EIA, Light-Duty Vehicles’ Share of Transportation Energy Use Is Projected to
Fall, T E, July 18, 2014, http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/
detail.php?id=17171.
9. T W H, supra note 3, at 41 g. 4.9.
10. J H. W ., E E E,
I. ., P D D U S,
US 2050 R, V 1: T R xiv (2015) [hereinafter
DDPP], http://deepdecarbonization.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/
US_Deep_Decarbonization_Technical_Report.pdf.
11. e Mixed Scenario also has no deployment of carbon capture and stor-
age (CCS) outside the electricity sector, and a balanced mix of renewable
energy, nuclear power, and natural gas with CCS in electricity generation.
Non-dispatchable renewables and nuclear power are balanced with electric-
ity storage (pumped hydro), exible end-use electric loads (electric vehicles
and thermal loads like water heating), and electric fuel loads. Hydrogen and
synthetic natural gas produced from electricity (referred to as power-to-gas)
and biomass are used to decarbonize pipeline gas, which is used in freight
transport and industry. DDPP, supra note 10, at 17, 27-29.
12. U.S. EPA, Fast Facts on Transportation Greenhouse Gas Emissions, https://
www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/fast-facts-transportation-greenhouse-gas-emis-
sions. LDVs emit 60% of total transportation GHG emissions. Id.
13. U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Alternative Fuels Data Center, Ve-
hicle Weight Classes & Categories, https://www.afdc.energy.gov/data/wid-
gets/10380 (last visited Feb. 25, 2018).
14. Michael Greenstone, Overlooked Tool to Fight Climate Change: A Tweak
in Fuel Standards, N.Y. T, Mar. 28, 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/
Other technologies can be used to power these vehicles,
including electric motors and hydrogen fuel cells, but a
number of barriers have limited their development (see
below in Part II). Of the 230 million LDVs on the road in
the United States today, electric and hybrid vehicles repre-
sent well under 1%.15 On an annual sales basis, EV s ales still
lag far behind ICE sales. For instance, of the 17.55 million
passenger vehicles sold in the United States in 2016,16 less
than 160,000 of them were EVs.17 is part will describe
four categories of LDVs and their relative contributions to
U.S. GHG emissions.
A. LDV Primer
LDVs can function based on a number of technologies.
e majority of LDVs in the United States have ICEs.18
Alternative types of LDVs include fully battery electric
vehicles (BEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in
hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and hydrogen fuel cell
vehicles (HFCVs) (collectively referred to as “alternative
fuel vehicles,” or “AFVs,” in this Article).19 Each of these
types wil l be described below, as well as their relative GHG
contributions and their role in the DDPP assessment.
1. ICEs
Vehicles powered by ICEs were rst developed for motor
transport at the end of the 19th century.20 Since then, ICE
vehicles (ICVs) have dominated the transportation sec-
tor.21 Without signica nt policy or market changes, their
dominance is likely to continue.22 ey are familiar, easy
2016/03/29/upshot/overlooked-tool-to-ght-climate-change-a-tweak-in-
fuel-standards.html.
15. DOE, Oce of Energy Eciency and Renewable Energy, Vehicle Technolo-
gies Oce: Advanced Combustion Engines, http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/
vehicle-technologies-oce-advanced-combustion-engines (last visited Feb.
25, 2018). In mid-2016, the United States had almost half a million EVs on
the road.
16. Bill Vlasic, Record 2016 for U.S. Auto Industry; Long Road Back May Be
at End, N.Y. T, Jan. 4, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/04/
business/2016-record-united-states-auto-sales.html.
17. Sunny Trochaniak, Electric Vehicle Sales in the United States: 2016 Fi-
nal Update, FC, Jan. 19, 2017 (stating that 159,333 EVs
were sold in the United States in 2016), http://www.eetcarma.com/
ev-sales-usa-2016-nal/.
18. Advancing Clean Transportation and Vehicle Systems and Technologies, in
Q T R 275, 276 (DOE 2015) [hereinaf-
ter Advancing Clean Transportation], https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/
les/2015/09/f26/QTR2015-08-Transportation.pdf.
19. DDPP, supra note 10, at 34. Contrast this with exible fuel vehicles, which
“have an internal combustion engine and are capable of operating on gaso-
line and any blend of gasoline and ethanol up to E85 (or ex fuel).” DOE,
Alternative Fuels Data Center, Flexible Fuel Vehicles, https://www.afdc.en-
ergy.gov/vehicles/exible_fuel.html (last updated May 18, 2017).
20. F B ., E, E, E:
C M 1069 (3d ed. 2010).
21. Advancing Clean Transportation, supra note 18, at 1.
22. Id.
Copyright © 2018 Environmental Law Institute®, Washington, DC. Reprinted with permission from ELR®, http://www.eli.org, 1-800-433-5120.
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