A curious election--Canada in May 2011.

• Author: Jones, David T.

Editor's Note: A frequent contributor to this journal and an acknowledged expert on Canadian affairs provides us with a snapshot of the recent parliamentary elections in our northern neighbor--elections that no one wanted and which provided a surprising outcome.--Ed.

On May 2, Canadians went to the polls. It was an election that nobody really seemed to desire.

And then it morphed into what a pollster labeled, "possibly the most bizarre, unstable, upside down election since Confederation." It became an event that no one had predicted in the most wild dream/nightmare scenarios--one whose outcome was totally unpredictable until the voting.

And the outcome was historically definitive: a Tory majority after five years as a minority; the socialist New Democratic Party (NDP) tripling its seats to become the official opposition for the first time in history; the Liberals dropping to third place (also for the first time in history); and the Quebec separatist Bloc Quebecois (BQ) virtually annihilated, losing 90 percent of its seats. In the process both the Liberal and BQ leaders lost reelection bids (the BQ leader immediately resigned; the Liberal leader resigned the following day).

Ultimately, Canada enters an "anything can happen" zone. The country may be moving toward a two party, left/right system; the Liberals and NDP could merge; the generation long separatist movement in Quebec has endured a massive, perhaps definitive, defeat.

And it is good news for the United States. A close ally is assured of stable, majority government for four years; and Ottawa's ability to cooperate with Washington without fearing a forced election by an opportunistic Opposition will enhance the relationship. On a day when the death of Osama bin Laden was announced, the election of a majority Canadian government is even better long-term news for Americans.

But First, Some Background

In mid-March, the Tory minority government was grinding along. It had just passed the five-year mark as the longest minority government (covering two separate elections) in Canadian history. The Opposition had become even more fractious than previously, and there was a sense of frustration among all parties. The government was frustrated as, without a majority, it was hobbled in passing major actions, e.g., a budget; law and order legislation; eliminating registration provisions for "long guns"; ending federal funding for political parties. To be sure, it was better to be the government than not--and they were able to accomplish some of their substantive political objectives. Conversely, the Opposition was frustrated because it was not the government.

Consequently, in continuing their complex minuet for governing, the Tories devised a federal budget that addressed (partially) some of the expressed concerns of Opposition parties. Simultaneously, they quietly appreciated that should the Opposition reject the budget as had been threatened, it would give them a platform for an election campaign. Nevertheless, the polls suggested that any election would result in approximately the same distribution of seats and votes represented in the current parliament. Although polls always vary, the Tories were approximately 38 percent; the Liberals 28 percent; NDP 16 percent; BQ (Quebec only) 8 percent), and Greens 10 percent. Hence, observers hypothesized that the Opposition would let the budget pass with suitable critical bombast, continue to hope that "something would turn up," and/or perhaps even wait until the end of the theoretical mandate (October 2012) to have an election.

Nevertheless, the Opposition determined to defeat the government--but not on the budget. Instead, having been reading their parliamentary handbooks, they battened on an unprecedented device--censuring the government for contempt of Parliament, claiming the Tories had failed to provide them with documentation on the costs for purchasing F-35 jet fighters and constructing additional penitentiaries. Moreover, a cabinet member had butchered her explanation for the government decision to deny funding of a popular charitable NGO, leaving her with thoroughly shredded credibility regarding what she did/authorized/intended/etc. regarding the funding decision. This provided the Opposition with a further cudgel to contend the government was lying to Parliament.

So the government was defeated on a red herring issue since it had indeed provided documentation on costs for both jets and jails. To be sure, the documentation submitted was doubtless inadequate and likely wrong, but when has any significant military weapons system or government construction project been delivered on time and at cost? Prime Minister Harper rather blithely blew off the censure, regardless of its unprecedented nature, as the equivalent of insider baseball of no interest to the public.

The Opposition apparently thought otherwise and, apparently, had a more complicated scenario in mind for the election/post-election period. It was high risk, but potentially high gain. As their worst case, they believed, the government would win another minority; they couldn't believe they could underperform the 2008 disaster when poor leadership and an unpopular issue (a complex tax-raising environment plan) prompted 800,000 Liberals to stay at home and drove Liberal numbers/vote percentage close to historic lows.

Consequently, if the best available private as well as public polling suggested that Harper/Tories would be limited to another minority government, the Opposition could put into effect what they had attempted in December 2008-January 2009: create a coalition to govern after the Tory minority government was quickly defeated following the election. The 2009 "coalition" effort failed when the Harper government obtained authority from the Governor General to suspend (prorogue) government over the Christmas holiday, thus avoiding a confidence vote. PM Harper then mounted a vigorous public relations campaign to denounce the "coalition" as a putative coup that would put the Liberal/NDP government hostage to the Bloc Quebecois (BQ) separatists for survival.

The result was an attack of cold feet by the Liberals/NDP (as well as a Tory commitment to withdraw the proposal to eliminate federal funding for the parties which was the...